Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Best Buy (BBY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$99.40-1.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 16, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.23 → 7.22 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BBY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Meet reaffirmed FY27 earnings guidance | Management reaffirmed FY27 EPS guidance of $6.30 to $6.60. | Intact | FY27 EPS falls below $6.30 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BBY is a mature consumer electronics retailer with a performance-led, rather than high-growth, long-term thesis. The thesis is intact this month, but earnings quality is fragile and execution remains something to watch.
The valuation evidence describes BBY as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and a justified priced-in assessment. Valuation has fallen recently, but the snapshot does not give enough detail to explain that change or to define the market’s specific assumptions.
Near term, recent performance is strong: operating income and operating margin improved from the prior quarter, and the company reported an earnings beat in August. Management has returned capital consistently, while progress on operational efficiency and its customer-focused priority remains under watch. The next guidance update matters, given a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses, even though the stated miss risk is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether guidance remains intact and improved profitability continues. Sector bellwethers AMZN, BABA, and PDD provide signals: continued strong results could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that support. CEO and CFO transitions add execution uncertainty, though the snapshot gives limited detail on their effects.
For a 1-to-3-year view, BBY’s recent operating improvement and capital returns support an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality makes continued execution and guidance important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management reaffirmed FY27 EPS guidance of $6.30 to $6.60. |
| Intact |
| FY27 revenue falls below $41.2B |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Carry out the FY27 share repurchase plan | Its $300 million share repurchase plan adds shareholder returns. | Intact | The company withdraws or materially reduces the $300M FY27 repurchase plan | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The company expects to spend approximately $300 million on share repurchases during FY27.” “Today, the company announced its board of directors has authorized the payment of a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.96 per common share.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 16, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.04 → $7.22 · observed estimates
$42.57B → $43.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.04 | $42,571,989,639 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.05 | $42,557,472,210 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.05 | $42,566,262,526 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.07 | $42,604,698,210 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.08 | $42,629,219,949 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.08 | $42,629,219,949 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.08 | $42,629,219,949 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.08 | $42,641,219,949 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.08 | $42,640,567,775 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.08 | $42,640,567,775 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.08 | $42,640,567,775 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.19 | $43,248,992,999 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.19 | $43,248,992,999 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.19 | $43,248,992,999 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.19 | $43,248,992,999 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.19 | $43,248,992,999 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.20 | $43,283,732,130 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.20 | $43,283,732,130 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.20 | $43,283,732,130 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.20 | $43,283,732,130 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.20 | $43,283,732,130 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.23 | $43,345,809,476 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.23 | $43,345,818,209 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.23 | $43,378,095,190 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.23 | $43,378,095,190 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.23 | $43,378,095,190 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.23 | $43,378,095,190 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.23 | $43,378,102,693 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.23 | $43,378,102,693 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.23 | $43,378,102,693 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.23 | $43,378,119,562 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.23 | $43,378,119,562 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.23 | $43,378,114,800 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.23 | $43,378,114,800 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.23 | $43,378,114,800 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.23 | $43,378,114,800 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.24 | $43,402,400,514 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.24 | $43,402,400,514 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.24 | $43,402,400,514 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.23 | $43,391,533,718 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.22 | $43,398,380,078 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.22 | $43,398,548,243 | 15 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 19 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.