Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Brink's (BCO)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$109.98-2.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.66 → 9.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin by 30-50 basis points in 2026 | A primary condition in Brink's's published investment case. The stated target is adjusted EBITDA margin up by 30-50bps. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA margin growth less than 20bps in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an operating-growth and acquisition-execution case, with robust earnings quality but moderate risk. The long-term thesis has weakened this week as recent financial performance moved into the lower half of its industry, despite the recent earnings beat.
BCO is described as cheap versus peers, while its valuation also carries a 54% premium to peers and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but valuation rose 13.7 points recently, so expectations and valuation deserve attention.
Near term, AMS/DRS organic revenue growth and higher revenue have supported the business, while management has kept the NCR Atleos acquisition on track for early 2027 and margins have shown expansion. The 2026 margin goal is mixed, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; recent litigation filings also add a risk to monitor, though the evidence gives no details on their effects.
The multi-year view depends on sustained AMS/DRS growth, continued margin progress, and completing the NCR Atleos acquisition on schedule. Near term, guidance and results from industrial peers such as ALLE, MSA, and BRC could signal whether the sector tailwind persists or fades.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BCO’s thesis rests on continued segment growth, margin execution, and the planned acquisition, but recent relative weakness and sector headwinds temper the case. The evidence is mixed, with medium confidence and a quiet near-term miss-risk assessment. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Supported by underlying operational productivity and revenue mix benefits, Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded year-over-year in every segment in the second quarter.” “Management believes organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and free cash flow conversion performance, provided in our 2026 framework, gives investors better visibility into the performance of our business.” Operating income was $131.000 million in 2026-Q3.
Maintain free cash flow conversion between 40% and 45% | Free cash flow conversion is strong near 45%. | Intact | free cash flow conversion falls below 40% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We continue to deliver sustainable improvements in cash generation with trailing-twelve-month free cash flow up $32 million dollars to $468 million reflecting conversion of 46 percent.” “We continue to deliver sustainable improvements in cash generation with trailing-twelve-month free cash flow surpassing $500 million in the quarter for the first time in our history."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Complete NCR Atleos acquisition by Q1 2027 and realize $200M cost savings | The NCR Atleos deal will save $200 million yearly. | Under Pressure | acquisition delayed beyond Q1 2027 or cost synergies below $150M | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With increasing clarity and momentum on the regulatory front, including the recent developments with the CMA in the United Kingdom, we now expect to close the acquisition in early January 2027.” “We now expect to realize synergies sooner than originally planned and have identified additional opportunities that increase confidence in our original $200 million target.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Reduce net leverage to about 2.3x EBITDA by end of 2026 | A supporting condition in Brink's's published investment case. The stated target is net leverage around 2.3x EBITDA. | Intact | net leverage exceeds 2.8x EBITDA at year-end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve mid-single digit organic revenue growth driven by AMS/DRS | A primary condition in Brink's's published investment case. The stated target is mid-single digit organic growth overall, mid-to-high teens AMS/DRS growth. | Intact | organic revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Growth in these lines of business accelerated sequentially, even against a challenging economic backdrop in many of our larger markets.” “Mark Eubanks, President and CEO, said: “Our strong second quarter shows continued progress against our AMS/DRS strategy with another quarter of mid-teens or better organic revenue growth.” Revenue was $1.392 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.59 → $9.88 · observed estimates
$5.91B → $5.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.59 | $5,908,870,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.59 | $5,908,870,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.59 | $5,908,870,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.59 | $5,908,870,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.59 | $5,908,870,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.50 | $5,822,253,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.36 | $5,796,422,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.36 | $5,796,422,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.36 | $5,796,422,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.36 | $5,796,422,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.36 | $5,796,422,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.36 | $5,796,422,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.36 | $5,796,422,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.35 | $5,787,089,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.66 | $5,809,816,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.57 | $5,788,587,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.02 | $5,735,837,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.95 | $5,711,337,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.88 | $5,698,337,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.88 | $5,698,337,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.88 | $5,698,337,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.88 | $5,698,337,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.88 | $5,698,337,500 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.