Brink's (BCO)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$108.87+2.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BCO — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-24
Regulation FD Disclosure. The Brink's Company (the “Company”) anticipates a change in the accounting treatment with respect to its Malaysia business (the “Malaysia Business”). Following a change in the Company's involvement in the Malaysia Business, the Company expects to account for its investment under a method other than consolidation, and the Malaysia Business’s results would therefore no longer be reflected on a consolidated basis in the Company's financial statements. The Company curren…
Why it matters: Legal issues could change financial reports and business plans. The result may affect how investors feel.
Worry ifIf the legal issues end well, it will be good for Brink's.
Less concerning ifBad news in legal matters could lead to accounting changes that hurt financial reports.
Why it matters: Legal problems can delay the acquisition. This affects Brink's growth and finances.
Worry ifThe legal issues are resolved. This lets the acquisition go ahead as planned.
Less concerning ifNew legal problems come up that could delay the acquisition.
Why it matters: Results from this lawsuit could affect financial reports and how investors feel.
Worry ifA good outcome or clear information could lessen the financial effects of the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifNegative news or more costs from the lawsuit.
Why it matters: Organic growth is crucial for Brink's overall performance. A drop signals potential issues in their AMS/DRS segments.
Worry ifQ2 2026 organic revenue growth is below 5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 organic revenue growth meets or exceeds 5%.
Why it matters: EPS guidance of $2.23 to $2.63 shows management's confidence in making money. It shows the company's skill in handling costs and growing revenue.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS guidance falls within the range of $2.23 to $2.63.
Worry ifIf guidance is below $2.23, there may be problems with revenue or cost control.
Why it matters: Sustained mid-teens growth in AMS/DRS segments is crucial for overall revenue growth. It shows the effectiveness of Brink's strategic focus.
Supportive ifAMS/DRS organic revenue growth reported at mid-teens or better.
Worry ifAMS/DRS growth below mid-teens shows possible issues in these areas.
Why it matters: Closing the NCR Atleos deal is key for Brink's growth and synergy plans. It could enhance their market position and profitability.
Supportive ifRegulatory approvals in key areas are in place. The acquisition will close as planned.
Worry ifRegulatory approvals are late. The acquisition will now take longer than Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows strong growth. This helps the company's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported at or above $1,365 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $1,365 million.
Why it matters: Margin growth means the company makes more money. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin shows an increase of 30-50 basis points from the previous year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin does not grow or falls.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is important. It helps fund growth and keeps finances healthy.
Supportive ifFree cash flow conversion reported at or above 40% for the year.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 40%.
Why it matters: Court case results can affect financial reports and how investors feel.
Worry ifThe court case ends well. The accounting treatment is clear and has no bad effects.
Less concerning ifCourt case results hurt financial reports or cause big losses.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $283 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,203 loss on $10,000 · 32.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.