Brink's (BCO)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$113.02+4.65%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BCO — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-24
Regulation FD Disclosure. The Brink's Company (the “Company”) anticipates a change in the accounting treatment with respect to its Malaysia business (the “Malaysia Business”). Following a change in the Company's involvement in the Malaysia Business, the Company expects to account for its investment under a method other than consolidation, and the Malaysia Business’s results would therefore no longer be reflected on a consolidated basis in the Company's financial statements. The Company curren…
Why it matters: AMS and DRS growth has been a key driver. A result above 15% would support the 2026 growth plan.
Supportive ifIn the November 4 results, AMS/DRS organic revenue growth is above 15% year over year.
Worry ifIn the November 4 results, AMS/DRS organic revenue growth is below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Cash flow is a stated goal, and Q2 trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $468 million. The full-year result will test progress toward the conversion target.
Watch forThe 2026 result shows free cash flow conversion of 40% or more.
Also watch forThe 2026 result shows free cash flow conversion below 40%.
Why it matters: Brink's has cleared key reviews and now points to an early Q1 2027 close. The deal also carries a $200 million yearly synergy goal.
Supportive ifBrink's reports that the NCR Atleos deal closed by March 31, 2027, after required approvals.
Worry ifBrink's reports a delay past March 31, 2027, a failed approval, or a deal termination.
Why it matters: Brink's aims to expand its adjusted EBITDA margin by 30 to 50 basis points in 2026. Q2 margin rose 100 basis points year over year.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is higher than a year ago. The 2026 increase stays within or above 30 to 50 basis points.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is flat or lower than a year ago. The 2026 increase is below 30 basis points.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,203 loss on $10,000 · 32.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.