Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Biodesix Inc (BDSX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.84-7.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BDSX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA positivity by end of 2025 | Management targets adjusted EBITDA positivity by end of 2025. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative after 2025-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The thesis is on watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort, even as management execution on revenue growth has been encouraging.
BDSX is described as cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and shows an expectations gap. The evidence does not spell out exactly what the market assumes, so the valuation signal is limited; no fragility gates have fired.
Near term, recent earnings beats and reaffirmed FY 2026 revenue guidance support continued growth, with first-half revenue and diagnostic testing volumes both higher year over year. Adjusted EBITDA losses have narrowed, but profitability remains unproven and risk is elevated; a guidance cut or weaker employment data could weigh on the business outlook.
The multi-year view depends on sustained diagnostic-testing growth and further improvement in adjusted EBITDA losses. Near term, reaffirmed guidance and stronger healthcare-sector results would support the setup, while a guidance cut or growing recession concerns would weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BDSX has a credible growth path but still needs to show that revenue expansion can lead to profitability. The evidence supports a cautious, watch-stage thesis rather than a settled view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Biodesix aims to grow revenue to about $111 million in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $108 million in FY26 |
Revenue: $26.861M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$111 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202626,861,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Exhibit 99.1 Biodesix Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results and Highlights Delivered $26.9 million in revenue, representing 34% growth in Q2 2026; Achieved 82% gross margin in Q2 2026; Maintained FY 2026 Revenue Guidance of $108-114 million, mid-point reflects 25% growth; Conference Call and Webcast Today at 4:30 p.m.” “Exhibit 99.1 Biodesix Announces First Quarter 2026 Results and Highlights Delivered $25.6 million in revenue representing 42% growth in Q1 2026; Achieved 84% gross margin in Q1 2026; Increased FY 2026 Revenue Guidance to $108-114 million, mid-point reflects 25% growth; Conference Call and Webcast Today at 4:30 p.m.” Revenue was $26.861 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 3, 2026 |
Quarterly revenue grows to at least $25.5 million by 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in Biodesix Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $25.55 million. | Intact | Quarterly revenue falls below $20 million in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $26.861M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.55 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202626,861,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.77 → $-1.67 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.77 | $132,810,442 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.77 | $132,810,442 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.77 | $132,796,140 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.62 | $134,015,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.65 | $133,778,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.65 | $133,778,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.65 | $133,778,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.67 | $134,328,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.67 | $134,628,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.67 | $134,628,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.62 | $134,015,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.62 | $134,015,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.62 | $134,015,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.62 | $134,015,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.62 | $134,015,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.62 | $134,015,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.62 | $134,015,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.67 | $134,621,826 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.67 | $134,617,540 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.67 | $134,617,543 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.67 | $134,624,286 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.