Biodesix Inc (BDSX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.84-7.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BDSX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -82.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 26.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 108.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
BDSX — officer change
Dated 2026-11-05
Chief Commercial Officer — Kieran O’Kane: The Chief Commercial Officer is departing the company, representing the loss of a senior executive, though the agreement suggests an orderly separation with benefits.
Why it matters: The Q2 loss improved to $3.2 million, but Biodesix still reports losses. A smaller loss would show progress toward its profit goal.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is less than $3.2 million, and the company keeps its path to profit in its outlook.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is $3.2 million or more, or the company drops its stated path to profit.
Why it matters: Biodesix needs about $27.0 million per quarter to reach the midpoint of its $108–114 million 2026 outlook. A miss could put that goal at risk.
Watch forQ3 revenue is at least $27.0 million, keeping the company on pace for the $111 million midpoint.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $27.0 million, putting the full-year midpoint pace out of reach without a later catch-up.
Why it matters: Biodesix set a goal to keep gross margin near 80%. A sharp drop could point to higher test costs or weaker revenue per test.
Watch forQ3 gross margin is at least 80%, matching the company's stated full-year goal.
Also watch forQ3 gross margin is below 80%.
Why it matters: Test volume growth drove much of recent diagnostic revenue growth. A slower pace could weaken the main growth engine.
Watch forQ3 diagnostic test volume grows more than 30% year over year, above Q2's 38% growth only if it exceeds 38%.
Also watch forQ3 diagnostic test volume growth is below 30% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$314 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $724 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,928 loss on $10,000 · 49.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.