Biodesix Inc (BDSX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.18-1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BDSX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -64.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 22.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BDSX — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2025-09-15
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA shows better financial health. It means the company is managing costs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA turns positive for the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA stays negative for the next quarter.
Why it matters: High growth in Development Services means strong demand. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifDevelopment Services revenue grows year over year by at least 90% in Q2.
Worry ifDevelopment Services revenue growth falls below 70% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Biodesix can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings show a smaller loss than last quarter. This means better performance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter, signaling ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Maintaining this growth rate shows strong demand and operational success. It supports the raised guidance and growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenue grows year over year by at least 25%.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$314 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $936 loss on $10,000 · 9.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,928 loss on $10,000 · 49.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it could help Biodesix's outlook. A strong sector can lift individual companies.
Supportive ifHealth care revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealth care revenue growth continues to slow below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: If test volumes rise above this level, it shows strong market demand and good sales.
Supportive ifTest volumes grow more than 25% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTest volumes grow 25% or lower year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Diagnostic Testing revenue is key to achieving overall revenue goals for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 Diagnostic Testing revenue grew over 40% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 Diagnostic Testing revenue growth is under 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted EBITDA means the company is making more money. It shows better management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss in Q3 is less than -$3 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss in Q3 remains worse than -$4 million.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margin is key for making more money as revenue increases.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin remains above 80%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin drops below 75%.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows strong business growth and market trust.
Supportive ifManagement increased the revenue forecast for FY 2026. It is now over $114 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers FY 2026 revenue guidance.