Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Beta Technologies, Inc. (BETA)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.05-4.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BETA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA loss between ($355M) and ($445M) in 2026 | A primary condition in Beta Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= ($445M) and <= ($355M). | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds ($445M) in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BETA represents a speculative growth investment with a focus on expanding its charging infrastructure. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak, and the company is under watch for potential guidance changes.
The market appears to have priced in a significant premium compared to peers, reflecting a belief in BETA's optionality despite its current loss-making status. There is a low fragility tier, suggesting that the market does not expect immediate instability.
Management is on track to achieve revenue growth, but the outlook for Adjusted EBITDA is mixed due to increased operating expenses. The near-term risk of missing guidance remains, as the company has had erratic earnings surprises in recent quarters.
The thesis hinges on whether BETA can maintain its revenue growth trajectory while managing rising costs. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX will be crucial, as their results could either support or hinder BETA's momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BETA's prospects depend on its ability to navigate financial challenges and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Beta Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain dominant position in eVTOL integration pilot program. |
| Under Pressure |
| Loss of dominant eVTOL integration position or major delivery delays |
Delivery outlook challenged by analyst cuts (Needham, BTIG); dominant position confirmed May 2026 Needham and BTIG cut targets citing delivery concerns; BTIG previously confirmed dominant eVTOL position. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue of $39M to $43M | A primary condition in Beta Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $39M and <= $43M. | Intact | Full year 2026 revenue falls below $39M | Revenue: $17.672M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $39M and <= $43M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202617,672,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.15 → $-2.31 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.10 | $380,183,580 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.15 | $333,160,578 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.29 | $313,503,950 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.28 | $329,203,457 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.28 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.26 | $329,228,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.26 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.31 | $329,170,832 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.