Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (BFAM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$55.47-1.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.90 → 5.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BFAM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS in the range $4.90 to $5.10 for 2026 | A primary condition in Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $4.90 to $5.10. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $4.90 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-4.76 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $4.90 to $5.10. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026-4.76 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BFAM is a growth-oriented services business whose multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue growth and better use of its back-up care services. The thesis is in a watch state after the October earnings miss, although the price reaction was muted and the evidence does not show a fresh break in the business case.
The valuation evidence describes BFAM as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in tag and low fragility. The expectations-gap measure is negative, but the snapshot does not define its scale or meaning, so the market’s exact assumptions are unclear.
Near term, revenue growth has continued: Q3 revenue was higher than a year earlier, and back-up care revenue grew in both supplied quarters. However, the fiscal 2026 revenue outlook was reduced in October, momentum fell after fresh earnings, and recent results sit below the industry cohort; the evidence also notes a run of earnings misses. Cash from operations continued, but the supplied figures do not establish year-over-year improvement.
The near-term risk is another guidance cut, which could bring further estimate reductions. Back-up care growth and delivery against the revised revenue outlook are key multi-year execution tests. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength at bellwether ARMK could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BFAM’s long-term thesis rests on ongoing back-up care growth and reliable execution, while the reduced outlook and recent miss keep uncertainty elevated. The evidence supports a watchful multi-year view, not a settled conclusion. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins remain stable. |
| Intact |
| profit margins decline significantly below recent quarterly levels |
Operating margin: -22.24% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Oct 30, 2026-22.238794 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $3.1 billion in 2026 | Bright Horizons grows revenue to about $3.1 billion in 2026. | Intact | revenue falls below $2.9 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $841.471M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.1 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026841,471,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.76 → $5.66 · observed estimates
$3.29B → $3.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.76 | $3,287,380,120 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.76 | $3,287,380,120 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.76 | $3,287,380,120 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.76 | $3,287,380,120 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.76 | $3,287,419,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.76 | $3,287,380,120 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.76 | $3,287,380,120 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.76 | $3,287,380,120 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.76 | $3,287,380,120 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.89 | $3,269,299,320 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.89 | $3,269,265,002 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.89 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.90 | $3,269,275,427 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.90 | $3,268,149,756 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.66 | $3,168,362,768 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.66 | $3,168,362,768 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.66 | $3,168,362,768 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.66 | $3,168,409,518 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.66 | $3,168,409,518 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.