Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (BFAM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$55.47-1.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 2.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BFAM — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-29
Director — Mary Ann Tocio: The filing discloses the planned retirement of a director with a named successor appointed to fill the vacancy, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of executive management.
Why it matters: BFAM spent $557.7 million on repurchases in the first nine months, while operating cash was $208.1 million. This gap may add pressure to liquidity.
Worry ifIn the next reported period, cash from operations is at least as high as cash spent on share repurchases.
Less concerning ifIn the next reported period, share repurchases exceed cash from operations. Cash or available credit also falls.
Why it matters: The new $4.98 to $5.03 range is below the prior $5.05 to $5.15 range. Meeting the lower range would show the reset has held.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS is at least $4.98, within the updated $4.98 to $5.03 range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS is below $4.98, or management cuts the range again.
Why it matters: Back-up care grew 19% in Q2 and 13% in Q3. Continued growth would support a key source of revenue gains.
Supportive ifBack-up care revenue grows at least 10% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifBack-up care revenue growth falls below 10% year over year or turns negative.
Why it matters: BFAM lowered its 2026 revenue view from $3.085–$3.115 billion to about $3.07 billion. The next results can show whether growth holds up.
Worry ifReported revenue is below the pace needed to reach about $3.07 billion for 2026. Or full-year revenue is below $3.07 billion.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 revenue reaches about $3.07 billion or more, with revenue growth from the prior year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $400 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,906 loss on $10,000 · 49.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.