Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (BFAM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$70.25-1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
BFAM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 1, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), Bright Horizons Family Solutions LLC (the “ Borrower ”), a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into the Fifth Amendment to Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, by and among the Borrower, Bright Horizons Capital Corp., certain subsidiaries of the Borrower, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Administrative Agent (as defined in the Amended Credit…
Why it matters: Keeping EPS above this level shows the company is making money and managing costs well.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS reported above $1.25 for Q3.
Worry ifDiluted EPS reported below $1.20 for Q3.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows better operational health. It supports the company's ability to invest and grow.
Supportive ifCash from operations was over $120 million.
Worry ifCash from operations was below $100 million.
Why it matters: Maintaining this growth rate shows the company is on track to hit its $3.1 billion revenue target for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 7% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EPS shows ongoing problems, even with management's guidance.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS falls below $1.28 in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS increases to $1.30 or higher in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $400 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,934 loss on $10,000 · 49.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If cash flow goes down more, it could mean problems in operations. This may hurt financial stability.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $202.8 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $205 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is crucial for funding growth and managing debt effectively.
Watch forCash flow from operations exceeds $200 million in Q3.
Also watch forCash flow from operations drops below $180 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this area shows the company is expanding. It is using its services well.
Supportive ifBack-up care revenue growth reported at over 15% in Q3.
Worry ifBack-up care revenue growth reported below 10% in Q3.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance is crucial for investor confidence. It shows the company is on track for its financial goals.
Supportive ifEPS reported in Q2 is within the range of $4.90 to $5.10.
Worry ifEPS reported in Q2 falls below $4.90.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows the company can control costs. It also keeps profits steady.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported in Q3 is between $5.05 and $5.15.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported in Q3 is below $5.00.
Why it matters: Changes in credit agreement terms can impact financial flexibility and growth plans. It affects how the company manages debt.
Watch forThere was a notice about better terms for the credit agreement.
Also watch forAn announcement of stricter terms or increased costs in the credit agreement.