Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BIOFRONTERA INC (BFRI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - PharmaceuticalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.81-10.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - PharmaceuticalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.20 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BFRI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Management delivers consistent progress on financial targets | A supporting condition in BIOFRONTERA INC's published investment case. The stated target is Consistent quarterly progress on financial results. | Improving | Management fails to show consistent progress or issues negative guidance | Q2 2026 EPS beat by $0.09 vs target of consistent progress Q2 2026 earnings beat and revenue growth offset Q1 miss; FDA approval supports pipeline. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and profitability-improvement story, not an established, consistently profitable business. The multi-year view is intact, with recent financial performance strong, but the overall signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The evidence describes BFRI as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. Pricing is tagged as justified, with no identified signs of unusual fragility, but the valuation evidence is uncertain.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue grew year over year in both reported 2026 quarters, while the net loss and adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed sharply from the first to the second quarter. Management is on track toward its 2026 profitability and cash flow goals, but a roughly 47% estimated chance of missing the next report and a record of erratic surprises make execution uncertain.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued Ameluz volume and price growth, progress toward profitability, and a successful Q1 2027 launch for the newly approved sBCC use. Near-term, a guidance cut or weakening employment data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, BFRI’s thesis rests on turning fast revenue growth and narrower losses into sustained profitability, with the new indication adding another execution test. The business setup has improved, but high risk and uncertain near-term earnings keep the overall picture mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net loss reduces toward break-even |
| A primary condition in BIOFRONTERA INC's published investment case. The stated target is Net loss improves toward $0 or better. |
| Improving |
| Net loss worsens beyond -$4.75 million in next 4 quarters |
Net income: $-604,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss improves toward $0 or better. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-604,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $41.7 million in FY26 | A primary condition in BIOFRONTERA INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $41.7 million. | Improving | Revenue falls below $17 million in FY26 | Revenue: $12.003M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $41.7 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202612,003,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.19 → $0.20 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.32 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.19 | $52,681,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.20 | $53,473,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.