BIOFRONTERA INC (BFRI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - PharmaceuticalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.61+6.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - PharmaceuticalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 96.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BFRI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 14, 2026, Biofrontera Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operational results for the three months ended March, 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The Company’s press release contains non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of a company’s performance, financial p…
Why it matters: The FDA's decision on the sBCC application could open a new revenue stream for Ameluz.
Supportive ifFDA approval for sBCC on or before September 28, 2026.
Worry ifFDA denies the sBCC application or delays the decision past the PDUFA date.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will show if the company is growing or still declining.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is over $12 million. This suggests a recovery.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is below $10 million. This confirms ongoing revenue problems.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial management and efficiency. It is a key sign of financial health.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q2 2026 is less than $4.3 million.
Worry ifNet loss in Q2 2026 is greater than $4.8 million.
Why it matters: Approval for sBCC would help Ameluz grow and make more money.
Supportive ifFDA approves the new application for Ameluz to treat sBCC.
Worry ifThe FDA rejects the application. Or, they delay the decision past September 28, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$274 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $658 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,086 loss on $10,000 · 50.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better financial performance could show a turnaround. This might make investors more positive.
Supportive ifCompany reports a net income for Q2, reversing the recent loss trend.
Worry ifThe company reports net losses for Q2. This shows it is still struggling financially.
Why it matters: Staying compliant is key. It helps keep the listing and investor trust.
Watch forThe company gets confirmation that it meets Nasdaq listing standards.
Also watch forCompany fails to maintain compliance with Nasdaq listing standards.
Why it matters: Less cash use shows better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating cash used in Q3 is less than $1.7 million.
Worry ifOperating cash used in Q3 exceeds $3 million.
Why it matters: A continued drop in revenue shows the company struggles to grow. This affects investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $10 million, continuing the trend from Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows above $10 million.
Why it matters: Higher unit volume shows strong market acceptance. It also shows good sales strategies.
Supportive ifAmeluz unit volume grows by over 20% from Q3 2025.
Worry ifAmeluz unit volume growth is flat or negative compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand for Ameluz. It also shows good cost control.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 30% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 20% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand for Ameluz. It also shows good cost management.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue exceeds $12.0 million, showing continued growth from Q2.
Worry ifIf Q3 2026 revenue is below $10.0 million, it may signal a slowdown.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows progress toward making money. It also shows good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is $(0.1) million or better in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA worsens to $(1.0) million or worse in Q3 2026.