Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.10+1.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.80 → 0.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BFS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
maintain consistent dividend payout | A primary condition in Saul Centers, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.59 per quarter. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.59 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.59 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.59 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.59 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BFS is a real estate business with a moderate-risk, income-oriented profile and signs of improving business momentum. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and recent financial performance is neutral.
Valuation evidence is mixed: BFS is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a premium versus peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to extreme market expectations.
Near-term results may remain uneven: BFS missed earnings in February, then beat in May and August, and the estimated miss risk is low but not absent. Across the multi-year view, revenue, same-property net operating income, and operating income have grown, while management has maintained its stated dividend priority.
The near-term setup would benefit if the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates, while a guidance reduction on the next call would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, continued operating growth matters, as does whether weakness among major real estate companies removes the sector’s recent support.
BFS’s long-term thesis remains intact, with improving operating measures balanced by uneven earnings and moderate risk. The key evidence ahead is guidance, operating growth, and the broader real estate backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
increase operating income |
| Operating income rose to $51.6M, showing better profits. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $49.1M next quarter |
Operating income: $51.993M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $51.6M operating income next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202651,993,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
steady revenue growth | A primary condition in Saul Centers, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.9% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7.9% next year | Revenue growth: 8.41% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.9% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 20268.409803 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.80 → $0.80 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.80 | $331,557,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.80 | $322,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.