Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.52+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BFS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 27, 2026, Saul Centers, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release to report its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information in this
Why it matters: FFO growth means better cash flow. This is important for keeping dividends.
Supportive ifFFO excluding Hampden House increases by more than $2 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFFO excluding Hampden House decreases or stays flat in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue from this project shows good expansion and leasing plans.
Supportive ifRevenue from Twinbrook Quarter Phase I exceeds $3 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from Twinbrook Quarter Phase I is below $1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Tenant payment issues can impact overall revenue and net income.
Worry ifTenant payments show low credit losses. They are less than $0.3 million on leases.
Less concerning ifTenant payments show high credit losses. They are more than $0.5 million on leases.
Why it matters: Growth in commercial rent shows demand for retail space. This can improve overall revenue.
Supportive ifCommercial base rent increases more than $0.8 million compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifCommercial base rent increases less than $0.8 million or declines.
Why it matters: The company keeps its dividend. This shows it is financially healthy. It also cares about its shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.59 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.59 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A fall in net income may show problems. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income exceeds $11.5 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income falls below $11.5 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend can show financial health or changes in spending plans.
Watch forManagement announces an increase in the dividend payout per share.
Also watch forManagement announces a decrease in the dividend payout per share.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand and good management. This helps financial health.
Supportive ifRevenue increases by more than 7.4% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth is less than 7.4% or declines.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy at Hampden House shows good leasing. This increases revenue potential.
Supportive ifOccupancy at Hampden House exceeds 64.2% in the coming months.
Worry ifOccupancy at Hampden House remains below 64.2% in the coming months.
Why it matters: Growth above 7% would show strong performance and support management's revenue goals.
Supportive ifSame property net operating income growth exceeds 7% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSame property net operating income growth is below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: High occupancy rates show strong demand. They also mean good leasing strategies.
Supportive ifResidential leasing occupancy is over 98% by the end of Q3.
Worry ifResidential leasing occupancy falls below 95% by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: FFO growth over $26 million shows strong operations. It also helps keep dividends stable.
Supportive ifFFO for common stockholders is over $26 million in Q3.
Worry ifFFO available to common stockholders falls below $25 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop would show problems in making money. It could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifSame property revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifSame property revenue growth remains above 7% year over year in Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $195 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,420 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.