Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.10+1.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
BFS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 27, 2026, Saul Centers, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release to report its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information in this
Why it matters: This lease-up drove much of recent mixed-use growth. Without it, mixed-use net operating income fell $0.4 million in Q2 year over year.
Watch forMixed-use net operating income at the same properties rises from a year ago. The company also reports more gains from Twinbrook Quarter Phase I.
Also watch forNet operating income at the same mixed-use properties falls from a year ago. Or Twinbrook Quarter Phase I adds no more income.
Why it matters: Shopping centers are the largest part of the portfolio. Their same-property income grew 3.6% in Q2, mainly from higher base rent.
Worry ifIn a later quarter, net operating income growth at the same shopping centers falls below 3.6% from a year ago.
Less concerning ifShopping center net operating income growth at the same properties stays at or above 3.6% from a year ago.
Why it matters: Q2 FFO per share fell from $0.73 a year earlier. Hampden House reduced FFO by $0.07 per share, while other properties added income.
Supportive ifQuarterly FFO per share rises above $0.69, the Q2 2026 level, in a later earnings report.
Worry ifQuarterly FFO per share remains at or below $0.69 in the next report, or falls further year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 same-property revenue grew 6.9%, helped by Twinbrook Quarter Phase I. Sector data points to slower growth, so the next report tests whether BFS keeps growing.
Watch forQ3 same-property revenue growth is above 6.9% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 same-property revenue growth is below 6.9% year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$73 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $202 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,431 loss on $10,000 · 24.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More occupied apartments can lift rent as the building's costs are already being charged. At August 3, 64.2% of homes were leased and occupied.
Supportive ifA later company report shows Hampden House occupancy above 64.2%. More homes are occupied, and rental income is higher.
Worry ifA later company report shows occupancy at or below 64.2%. Or fewer than the last reported 235 homes are occupied.