Bunge Global (BG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$118.71-1.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BG — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-09-03
Controller and Chief Accounting Officer — Matt Simmons: The filing announces the planned retirement of the Controller/CAO with a named internal successor and an orderly transition period, indicating a planned succession rather than a sudden loss of executive leadership.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends show how well the company manages working capital.
Worry ifCash flow from operations improves a lot compared to Q1.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations worsens compared to Q1.
Why it matters: The adjusted EPS guidance of $9.25 to $9.75 shows strong performance. This shows management's confidence in the market.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the new EPS guidance in the Q3 earnings results.
Worry ifManagement lowers the EPS guidance to below $9.25.
Why it matters: Strong soybean processing shows Viterra is doing well. This means success in operations.
Supportive ifSoybean processing volumes are over 11 million metric tons in Q3.
Worry ifSoybean processing volumes fall below 10 million metric tons in Q3.
Why it matters: Results from grain merchandising will indicate how well Bunge adapts to market changes.
Watch forGrain merchandising results show a big improvement from Q1.
Also watch forGrain merchandising results drop compared to Q1.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $290 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,018 loss on $10,000 · 20.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing the share repurchase program shows strong capital use. It can raise share value.
Supportive ifManagement says the $2 billion share buyback program is complete.
Worry ifManagement says the share repurchase program is not done by Q3.
Why it matters: Grain merchandising results are key for checking performance in a tough sector.
Worry ifGrain merchandising results show a drop year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifGrain merchandising results stay the same or grow year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: A buyback shows management's trust. It can also help shareholders.
Supportive ifBunge announces a formal share buyback program in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo announcement is made regarding a share buyback program.
Why it matters: Management raised the full-year adjusted EPS outlook. This shows strong performance and good market conditions.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EPS guidance remains within the range of $9.25 to $9.75.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS guidance is lowered below $9.25.