BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.17+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
BGC Group grows revenue strongly, up 44% year over year to $955 million in 2026-Q1. Profit rose 44% to $115 million, helped by cost savings expanded to $35 million annually. Market share in FMX UST futures grew from 33% to 41%, showing strong competitive gains. The company pays steady dividends of $0.02 per share, reflecting stable capital return.
Revenue growth could slow below analyst expectations of 8% next year. Cost savings may stall, limiting profit margin expansion. Market share gains in futures could reverse if competitors innovate faster.
The price is about 17% below our fair value near $14, reflecting justified expectations for 8% revenue growth. Our view is aligned with consensus but sees upside from margin and market share gains.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.02 in any quarter next 4 quarters
Breaks if: FMX UST market share falls below 33% next 4 quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate risk profile with a focus on growth in the Financials sector. The current thesis state is weakened due to recent financial performance dropping relative to peers.
The market currently prices BGC at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth expectations are already factored in. However, the expectations gap suggests that the market is not fully confident in future performance.
Management is focused on increasing revenue growth and expanding market share, with recent results showing some success. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for BGC. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could lead to further weakness.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. BGC's recent financial performance dropped from the robust 90th to the 45th percentile of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the reasons to own the stock. The market reaction has been muted, with only a modest price movement since then.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $115 million or cost savings below $25 million annualized next 4 quarters
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY27
Continue driving revenue growth across all asset classes and geographies, leveraging new products and acquisitions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BGC's outlook will depend on its ability to navigate sector dynamics and execute on management priorities. Not investment advice.