Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.27+1.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.60 → 1.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BGC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend payments of $0.02 per share | The company pays steady dividends of $0.02 per share, reflecting stable capital return. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.02 in any quarter next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend = $0.02 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20260.02 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BGC is a growth-oriented financial business, not a clear turnaround or a deep-value case. The long-term thesis is mildly favorable after its signal improved, but the current thesis state remains watch because recent performance has lagged its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to BGC being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 45% premium to peers, and the overall value factor is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, but priced-in fragility is low and the snapshot describes the setup as justified rather than broadly fragile.
Near term, revenue growth and higher FMX UST market share support management’s growth priority, while the latest reported quarter had lower revenue than the prior quarter and the recent results record includes misses. The cost program remains on watch, and dividend delivery is mixed despite steady quarterly payments. The next guidance update and continued execution are key near-term tests.
A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current level could weigh on BGC and the wider financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW would support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on broad-based growth, FMX market-share gains, and cost savings turning into sustained execution.
For the next 1 to 3 years, BGC has credible growth signals but an uneven execution record and mixed valuation evidence. The long-term thesis depends on sustained growth and reliable delivery, with near-term guidance and sector conditions as important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Grow FMX UST futures market share to 41% or higher |
| Market share in FMX UST futures grew from 33% to 41%, showing strong competitive gains. |
| Intact |
| FMX UST market share falls below 33% next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand operating income and margins via cost savings | Profit rose 44% to $115 million, helped by cost savings expanded to $35 million annually. | Intact | Operating income falls below $115 million or cost savings below $25 million annualized next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 8% annually | A primary condition in BGC Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 7.85% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20267.849577 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.58 → $1.60 · observed estimates
$3.62B → $3.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,746 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.58 | $3,653,893,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.58 | $3,653,893,740 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,746 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,920 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,920 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,920 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,920 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,920 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,920 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,746 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,746 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,746 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,746 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,746 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.58 | $3,623,343,746 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.57 | $3,681,972,917 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.60 | $3,669,151,212 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.