BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.17+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BGC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BGC — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-30
of Form 8-K. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing and as set forth below. Discussion of Forward-Looking Statements about BGC Statements…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Watch forBGC declares a quarterly dividend of $0.02 per share again.
Also watch forBGC cuts or stops the quarterly dividend payment.
Why it matters: FMX UST growth is crucial for market share. Slowing growth could impact future earnings.
Worry ifFMX UST average daily volume growth was below 30% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifFMX UST average daily volume growth stayed above 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: New M&A could boost growth and market position. This is a priority for management.
Supportive ifA press release about a new acquisition or partnership.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Sustaining ECS growth above 100% shows BGC's strong position in the energy market.
Supportive ifECS revenue growth remains above 100% in the next quarter.
Worry ifECS revenue growth drops below 80%, indicating potential market share loss.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $296 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,968 loss on $10,000 · 19.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management wants to save $35 million. Saving more shows good cost management.
Supportive ifCost savings reported above $35 million.
Worry ifCost savings reported below $35 million.
Why it matters: Increasing market share for FMX UST shows BGC's strong position in the market. It can lead to higher revenues and profits.
Supportive ifFMX UST market share increases above 42% in the next quarter.
Worry ifFMX UST market share declines or stays below 42%.
Why it matters: Successful cost savings can help margins and profits. This supports the company's financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save at least $35 million each year by the end of Q3.
Worry ifCost savings fall short of $35 million or no updates on the program's progress.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.02 per share.
Worry ifDividend payment is reduced below $0.02 per share.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show weak demand or more competition. This can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 7% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains above 7% year over year.
Why it matters: The conflict will show if revenue growth is steady or just due to changes.
Watch forRevenue growth remains strong despite the Iran conflict continuing.
Also watch forRevenue growth drops a lot. The conflict affects trading volumes.