BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$93.190.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BJ
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $93 BJ trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median — but our blended $79 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $105–$115. Note: our $79 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($105–$115). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $100 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $109.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $19.45 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $42.10 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $101.71 | 11.7 | 9.32 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$105.00 – $115.00 (median $109.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-08-24
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 120% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 25.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.39/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1, 2027-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $28.32 |
| 15.9 |
| 1.78 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $77.38 | 15.8 | 4.90 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $152.42 | 0.9 | 178.58 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $70.56 | 15.4 | 4.58 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $29.25 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $96.38 | 21.0 | 4.58 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $82.13 | 16.8 | 4.88 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $13.51 | 15.9 | 0.85 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $82.79 | 15.8 | 5.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $176.40 | 0.9 | 206.68 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $80.73 | 15.4 | 5.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $110.27 | 21.0 | 5.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $86.98 | 15.8 | 5.50 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $185.33 | 0.9 | 217.14 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $84.81 | 15.4 | 5.50 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $115.85 | 21.0 | 5.50 | Analyst | high |