Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$111.26+0.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.03 → 5.04 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BJ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations recovers above $200M | A supporting condition in BJ's Wholesale Club's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations >= $200M next 4 quarters. | Broken | Cash from operations remains below $200M next year | Cash from operations: $401.481M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $200M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 25, 2026401,481,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BJ is a steady consumer-staples business with some cyclical exposure, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent results supporting the business case, but valuation and economic risks temper the picture.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, with a durable premium versus peers and an expectations gap of 0.13. The valuation measure rose by 14 points recently, while fragility indicators remain low; this suggests optimism is reflected in the valuation, but the snapshot does not show concentrated fragility.
Near-term fundamentals have been strong: comparable club sales excluding gasoline rose 11.9% year over year in the third quarter, and membership fee income grew 9.9% year over year. Management has reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, and membership growth is on track, while sales and capital spending progress are mixed against stated priorities. The near-term miss risk is described as low, though past misses and recent peer misses remain cautions.
The multi-year view depends on continued comparable sales and membership growth, alongside execution of planned investment in clubs and distribution. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be negative near term; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BJ’s business thesis remains intact, but stretched valuation leaves less room for weaker execution or a softer economy. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS reaches at least $4.4 next fiscal year | The company targets EPS near $4.5 next year. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $4.4 for FY 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves modestly | Operating income shows modest improvement. | Under Pressure | Operating income fails to improve above $203M next year | Operating income: $252.357M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $210M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 25, 2026252,357,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 8% annually | A primary condition in BJ's Wholesale Club's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year | Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 25, 20260 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.89 → $5.04 · observed estimates
$25.00B → $25.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.89 | $24,996,815,660 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.89 | $24,996,815,660 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.89 | $24,996,815,660 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.89 | $24,996,815,660 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.89 | $24,996,815,660 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.89 | $24,996,815,660 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.89 | $24,996,815,660 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.90 | $24,930,151,530 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.90 | $24,930,151,530 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.90 | $24,929,093,300 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.90 | $24,940,819,900 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.90 | $24,940,819,900 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.90 | $24,997,141,151 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.91 | $24,986,710,513 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.91 | $24,986,710,513 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.97 | $25,328,979,179 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.97 | $25,328,979,179 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.99 | $25,354,130,220 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.02 | $25,383,720,304 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.02 | $25,363,055,304 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.02 | $25,363,055,304 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.02 | $25,363,055,304 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.03 | $25,335,895,528 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.03 | $25,335,895,528 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.03 | $25,335,895,528 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.03 | $25,335,942,099 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.03 | $25,335,489,204 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.03 | $25,340,145,954 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.04 | $25,350,805,671 | 16 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 20, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.