BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$93.190.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BJ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BJ — President transition
Dated 2026-08-21
Chief Commercial Officer — Paul Cichocki: The filing discloses the planned retirement of a senior executive (EVP/CCO) with a structured transition period and advisor role, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Declining cash flow can limit BJ's ability to invest in growth. It is a sign of financial health.
Worry ifCash from operations was below $139.9 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations was above $150 million.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A expenses can lower profits. They may show problems in how the company runs.
Worry ifSG&A expenses for Q2 rise more than 5% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses for Q2 increase less than 3% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS is a key measure of profitability. A miss could raise concerns about cost management.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was less than $4.40 for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS was more than $4.60 for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This metric tests if BJ's can maintain sales momentum. A drop below guidance signals weakness.
Worry ifClub sales grew less than 2.0% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifComparable club sales growth at or above 2.0% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Slow growth in membership fees may show problems keeping or gaining members.
Worry ifMembership fee income growth below 9.0% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifMembership fee income growth at or above 9.0% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Not spending enough could hurt future growth and plans.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $800 million for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is $800 million or more for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Weak growth in operating income may mean higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifOperating income grew less than 10% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating income grew 10% or more year-over-year in Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,845 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.