BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$110.90+1.32%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BJ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
BJ — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-08
Other Events. On September 4, 2026, BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) reached a settlement agreement to resolve litigation related to credit card interchange fees in which the Company was a plaintiff, resulting in a one-time pre-tax benefit of approximately $240 million, net of associated legal fees, which the Company expects will be reflected in its third quarter fiscal 2026 results. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registra…
Why it matters: Fee income rose 9.9% in Q2, backed by member growth and more higher-tier members. A slower pace could weaken this steady source of growth.
Supportive ifQ3 membership fee income grows at least 9% year over year, with member count above 8.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 membership fee income grows less than 7% year over year, or reported member count falls below 8.5 million.
Why it matters: The company cut prices to support member value, while tariff refunds partly offset the cost. A wider margin decline could weigh on profit.
Worry ifQ3 merchandise gross margin rate falls more than 20 basis points year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 merchandise gross margin rate is flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Sales excluding gas rose 3.1% in Q2, above the full-year plan. The next report tests if that pace lasts.
Supportive ifQ3 comparable club sales, excluding gas, rise at least 3.0% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 comparable club sales, excluding gas, rise less than 2.0% year over year.
Why it matters: The settlement is a one-time benefit, not sales from clubs. Check whether core earnings also support the raised full-year EPS range.
Supportive ifOn November 20, adjusted EPS, excluding the settlement, is at least $1.10. Management keeps its $4.60 to $4.80 full-year range.
Worry ifOn November 20, adjusted EPS, excluding the settlement, is below $1.10. Or management cuts its $4.60 to $4.80 full-year range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,845 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.