Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. (BKD)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.81-3.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.17 → 0.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BKD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $509 million in 2026 | It targets adjusted EBITDA near $509 million. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $445 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA (1) of $122 million for the second quarter of 2026 grew 4.3% over the second quarter of 2025.” ““We achieved our expectations for RevPAR and Adjusted EBITDA during the second quarter, and remain on track to deliver on our 2026 guidance of 8% to 9% RevPAR year-over-year growth and $502 million to $516 million in Adjusted EBITDA.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BKD is a higher-risk operating recovery story, not yet a profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the latest signal has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable.
BKD is tagged as cheap versus peers, with no flagged signs of fragile expectations. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not fully aligned with the valuation case, though model confidence is medium.
Near-term results have been strong, with three recent earnings beats, and RevPAR growth of 8.2% in both the first and second quarters of 2026, in line with the full-year goal. Adjusted EBITDA also grew year over year, but its priority status is mixed, and the supplied evidence does not confirm progress toward positive free cash flow. Risk remains elevated, including a possibility of weaker guidance and broader economic pressure on cyclical businesses.
The multi-year view depends on BKD sustaining RevPAR growth, delivering its 2026 EBITDA guidance, and making progress toward positive adjusted free cash flow. A guidance cut or continued weakening in jobs data would weigh on the setup, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare peers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BKD’s operating momentum supports an intact thesis, but losses, elevated risk, and limited evidence on free cash flow leave meaningful execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Return to positive EPS by 2027 | A supporting condition in Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.15. | Improving | EPS remains negative through FY27 | Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.15. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $509 million in 2026 | Brookdale aims to grow revenue to about $509 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $445 million in FY26 | Revenue: $718.583M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$509 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026718,583,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA (1) of $122 million for the second quarter of 2026 grew 4.3% over the second quarter of 2025.” ““We achieved our expectations for RevPAR and Adjusted EBITDA during the second quarter, and remain on track to deliver on our 2026 guidance of 8% to 9% RevPAR year-over-year growth and $502 million to $516 million in Adjusted EBITDA.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
RevPAR growth of 8% to 9% in 2026 | A supporting condition in Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 8% to 9% YoY. | Intact | RevPAR growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “HIGHLIGHTS • Increased second quarter 2026 consolidated revenue per available unit (RevPAR) by 8.2% year-over-year.” ““We achieved our expectations for RevPAR and Adjusted EBITDA during the second quarter, and remain on track to deliver on our 2026 guidance of 8% to 9% RevPAR year-over-year growth and $502 million to $516 million in Adjusted EBITDA.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.20 → $0.17 · observed estimates
$3.07B → $3.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.20 | $3,073,156,480 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.19 | $3,072,752,680 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.19 | $3,072,752,680 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.14 | $3,072,232,081 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.17 | $3,011,606,408 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.17 | $3,011,606,408 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.17 | $3,007,586,408 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.17 | $3,007,586,408 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.17 | $3,007,586,408 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.17 | $3,007,310,008 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.17 | $3,007,627,808 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.17 | $3,007,582,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.17 | $3,007,582,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.17 | $3,007,582,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.17 | $3,007,582,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.17 | $3,007,582,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.17 | $3,007,582,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.17 | $3,005,764,008 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.17 | $3,005,764,008 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.17 | $3,005,508,208 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.17 | $2,995,641,453 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.17 | $2,995,641,453 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.17 | $2,995,641,453 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.17 | $2,995,641,453 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.17 | $2,995,641,453 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.17 | $2,995,641,453 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.17 | $2,995,641,453 | 2 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.