Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. (BKD)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.77-1.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BKD — officer change
Dated 2026-06-24
Director — Jordan R. Asher: Dr. Asher's term as a member of the Board of Directors expired and he did not stand for re-election.
Why it matters: Achieving positive cash flow is a key goal for Brookdale. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow reported as positive.
Worry ifQ2 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow remains negative.
Why it matters: Successful community sales can improve cash flow. This helps Brookdale focus on core operations.
Supportive ifCash proceeds from community sales were over $100 million.
Worry ifThere were no announcements of community sales. Proceeds did not drop below $100 million.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Brookdale is doing better or worse financially.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth is speeding up again toward past highs.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Why it matters: Maintaining guidance shows confidence in future earnings. It can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays the same or goes up in the next earnings report.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance goes down in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates mean more demand and better operations. This shows Brookdale's strength in the market.
Supportive ifQ3 occupancy rates are over 83.5%.
Worry ifQ3 occupancy rates fall below 82.5%.
Why it matters: This range shows Brookdale is managing costs while growing revenue. It supports confidence in financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was between $502 million and $516 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $502 million.
Why it matters: Strong occupancy trends indicate demand and can lead to higher revenues. It reflects the health of the senior living market.
Supportive ifJuly and August occupancy rates show an increase from June's 82.5%.
Worry ifJuly and August occupancy rates dropped or stayed flat from June's 82.5%.
Why it matters: EBITDA guidance shows the company is stable. It is healthy financially.
Watch forQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds the guidance.
Also watch forQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA falls below the guidance.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would confirm Brookdale's ability to sustain its growth strategy. It shows demand in senior housing is strong.
Supportive ifQ3 RevPAR growth reported at or above 8%.
Worry ifQ3 RevPAR growth reported below 8%.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows Brookdale is stable and can grow. It shows good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is from $502 million to $516 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $502 million.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help Brookdale's portfolio. It may lead to more earnings. It shows management wants to grow.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will finish in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close or is delayed a lot.
Why it matters: Stable occupancy rates show demand for senior living is recovering. It shows the company is healthy.
Watch forOccupancy rates are above 82% for two months in a row.
Also watch forOccupancy rates drop below 82% for two months in a row.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $353 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,011 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.