The Buckle, Inc. (BKE)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.15-0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BKE — officer change
Dated 2026-08-31
Director — Angie J. Klein: A director resigned for personal professional reasons with no disagreement, which is a standard board turnover event rather than a shock to executive management.
Why it matters: Net income is a key measure of Buckle's profitability. A drop indicates financial stress.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 below $44 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 2026 above $44 million.
Why it matters: Online sales growth shows how well Buckle adapts to changing shopping habits.
Supportive ifOnline sales increase more than 5% year over year for Q2.
Worry ifOnline sales grow less than 3% year over year for Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend could signal shifts in financial health or priorities.
Watch forAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.35 per share.
Also watch forAnnouncement of a dividend cut below $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: Scott A. Werth's leadership could drive better store performance. His experience is key for growth.
Watch forStore performance metrics improve significantly under Scott A. Werth's leadership within the next quarter.
Also watch forStore performance numbers drop or stay the same under his leadership.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $319 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,784 loss on $10,000 · 27.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Buckle's sales. Positive trends can boost sales, while negative trends can hurt them.
Watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 3% on September 16, 2026.
Also watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth below 0% on September 16, 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net income means strong finances and good cost control. This can help build investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 exceeds $46.9 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 falls below $46.9 million.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that Buckle cares about giving value to its shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.35 per share is paid as scheduled on July 29, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Improving online sales growth is crucial as retail shifts online. It impacts overall revenue.
Supportive ifOnline sales growth exceeds 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifOnline sales growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This metric shows if Buckle can keep its sales momentum. A drop below 2% signals weakness.
Worry ifComparable store net sales growth for Q3 is reported below 2%.
Less concerning ifComparable store net sales growth for Q3 is reported at 2% or higher.
Why it matters: Online sales growth is key for Buckle's strategy. Slower growth may indicate market challenges.
Worry ifOnline sales growth for Q3 is reported below 2%.
Less concerning ifOnline sales growth for Q3 is reported at 2% or higher.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health and commitment to shareholders. A cut would raise concerns.
Supportive ifThe company will announce a quarterly dividend. It will be $0.35 per share.
Worry ifThe company announces a cut to the quarterly dividend below $0.35 per share.