Black Hills Corporation (BKH)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$73.21-0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45 for fiscal year 2026: Q2 EPS $0.54 vs $0.42 consensus (+28.6%); FY26 guidance $4.25-$4.45 reaffirmed.
Black Hills aims to keep its 2026 EPS between $4.25 and $4.45. Operating income rose to $201.9 million in Q1 2026, showing steady profit. Cash from operations improved to $176.2 million, supporting financial health. The company plans another rate increase, which could boost future earnings.
Earnings missed estimates in Q1 2026 and guidance was cut. Litigation risks and rate increase challenges could hurt profits. Revenue fell 3% year over year, signaling demand weakness.
The current price reflects about 26% revenue growth expected by analysts and is slightly below our valuation range. Our view differs by focusing on the risk that earnings and cash flow targets may not be met given recent guidance cuts and litigation.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $176.2 million next quarter
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.25 or above $4.45 in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $201.9 million next quarter
Breaks if: No rate increases approved or implemented in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a utility company with a focus on stable earnings and growth through strategic mergers. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance despite sector headwinds.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector environment. BKH is considered expensive compared to its peers, with a premium that suggests high expectations.
Management is on track to meet its adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 and is advancing its merger with NorthWestern Energy. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings misses, although the current miss probability is relatively low.
The long-term thesis hinges on the successful execution of the merger and the ability to serve the growing data center demand. Additionally, external factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance of sector peers will play a crucial role.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BKH's performance will depend on management's execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read. However, regulatory scrutiny threatens operating income stability and cost control. Higher customer costs may also impact income stability.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.