Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Black Hills Corporation (BKH)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$84.63+0.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.58 → 4.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BKH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Enhance cash from operating activities | Cash from operations improved to $176.2 million, supporting financial health. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $176.2 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $195.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $176.2 million next quarter. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 2026195,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BKH is a regulated utility with a multi-year thesis tied to merger progress, new data-center demand, and generation projects. The thesis is intact, though recent performance and management execution are rated neutral and several key plans remain incomplete.
The evidence describes BKH as expensive, despite a valuation signal that says it is cheap versus peers. Expectations are not especially forgiving, but the priced-in assessment calls the valuation justified and fragility low. The valuation score has fallen notably, while the model’s confidence is high.
Near term, recent results are mixed: BKH had an earnings beat in August after a miss in May, and guidance was reaffirmed as of August 5. The earnings-miss risk is rated low, but surprises have been trending down and there was a deep miss in recent history. Over the multi-year view, merger approval, data-center agreements, and Lange II completion remain important execution tests.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while lower interest rates could support the utility sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could also help the sector backdrop. BKH’s own progress depends on resolving outstanding regulatory approval for the merger, finalizing data-center agreements, and completing Lange II on schedule.
For the next 1 to 3 years, BKH has an intact but execution-dependent long-term thesis, with expensive valuation and mixed results limiting the margin for setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45 for fiscal year 2026 |
| A primary condition in Black Hills Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $4.25 and $4.45. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $4.25 or above $4.45 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Given strong execution by our team in serving our customers and advancing our regulatory and growth initiatives, we expect to deliver in the upper half of our 4% to 6% long-term EPS growth target supported by our current plan for 2026 to 2030.” “This guidance excludes the expected merger with NorthWestern Energy, which is expected to close by year-end 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income stability and growth | Operating income rose to $201.9 million in Q1 2026, showing steady profit. | Intact | Operating income falls below $201.9 million next quarter | Operating income: $97M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $201.9 million next quarter. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 202697,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful approval and implementation of rate increases | A supporting condition in Black Hills Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is At least one rate increase approved and implemented in 2026. | Improving | No rate increases approved or implemented in 2026 | Qualitative: Rate increase requested (Aug 2026), approval pending News confirms rate increase request but lacks approval confirmation; other news focuses on data center deals and earnings. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.61 → $4.62 · observed estimates
$3.22B → $3.45B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.61 | $2,557,317,039 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.61 | $3,218,650,370 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.61 | $2,557,317,039 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.61 | $2,557,317,039 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.61 | $2,557,317,039 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.61 | $2,557,317,039 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.61 | $2,557,317,039 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.61 | $2,557,317,039 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.58 | $2,557,175,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.58 | $2,557,425,558 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.58 | $3,132,950,372 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.58 | $3,132,950,372 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.58 | $3,132,950,372 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.58 | $3,132,950,372 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.58 | $3,132,950,372 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.58 | $3,132,950,372 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.63 | $3,012,112,779 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.63 | $3,276,690,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.63 | $3,276,690,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.63 | $3,276,690,223 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.63 | $3,276,690,223 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.63 | $3,276,690,223 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.63 | $3,276,690,223 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.63 | $3,276,690,223 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.63 | $3,454,525,186 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.63 | $3,454,525,186 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.63 | $3,454,525,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.63 | $3,454,525,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.63 | $3,454,525,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.63 | $3,454,608,519 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.62 | $3,452,775,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.62 | $3,452,775,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.62 | $3,452,775,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.62 | $3,452,775,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.62 | $3,452,775,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.62 | $3,452,775,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.62 | $3,452,691,853 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.62 | $3,452,691,853 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.62 | $3,452,691,853 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.62 | $3,452,691,853 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.62 | $3,452,691,853 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.62 | $3,452,691,853 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.62 | $3,452,691,853 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.62 | $3,452,691,853 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.