Black Hills Corporation (BKH)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$73.21-0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BKH — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-17
contains: 1. Historical financial statements of NorthWestern filed in accordance with Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X, included as Exhibit 99.1, which are incorporated herein by reference; and 2. Pro forma financial information of Black Hills and NorthWestern on a combined basis in accordance with Article 11 of Regulation S-X giving effect to certain pro forma adjustments related to the pending merger transaction as if it were completed on January 1, 2025 as it relates to the pro forma combined c…
Why it matters: This approval is the last step needed to close the merger with NorthWestern Energy. It will determine if the merger can proceed as planned.
Supportive ifMontana Public Service Commission will approve the merger by the end of 2026.
Worry ifMontana denies or delays approval of the merger past 2026.
Why it matters: Falling below this guidance could show problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for 2026 falls below $4.25.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS remains within the guidance range of $4.25 to $4.45.
Why it matters: Litigation may delay or complicate the merger. Good results would help it finish on time.
Watch forLitigation ends well. This allows the merger to move forward without delays.
Also watch forLitigation causes major delays. It creates issues for the merger.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal challenges in meeting the full-year EPS guidance.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EPS was below $1.70. This shows ongoing earnings pressure.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EPS was above $1.70. This suggests earnings are stable.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $215 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,178 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The outcome will affect revenue recovery. It will also impact future earnings.
Watch forApproval of the rate review request leads to new revenue of $5 million annually.
Also watch forNot accepting the rate review request stops revenue recovery. This affects earnings.
Why it matters: Keeping cash flow growth is important for funding operations and projects. It shows the company's financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $176.2 million in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $176.2 million.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance shows confidence in financial performance and growth. A failure to meet this could signal issues.
Supportive ifBlack Hills reports adjusted EPS within the guidance range of $4.25 to $4.45.
Worry ifBlack Hills revises EPS guidance downwards below $4.25.
Why it matters: This project is key for making the system stronger and supporting growth. It may improve efficiency and customer satisfaction.
Supportive ifThe Ready Wyoming project finishes on time and starts operations as planned.
Worry ifThere are delays in finishing the project or reports of big cost overruns.
Why it matters: Approval is key for the merger to close and create Bright Horizon Energy Corporation. This merger is seen as a way to enhance scale and growth opportunities.
Supportive ifMontana, Nebraska, and South Dakota approve the merger. There are no big conditions.
Worry ifRegulatory bodies stop the merger. They may add conditions that delay it.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows trust in future earnings and stability.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45 in Q2 earnings.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. It goes from $4.25 to $4.45.
Why it matters: Court cases may change the merger timeline and plans for Black Hills.
Worry ifCourt cases end well, letting the merger go ahead as planned.
Less concerning ifCourt cases cause big delays or problems for the merger.
Why it matters: Approval is important to finish the merger. It could help growth and stability.
Supportive ifRegulatory commissions approve the merger. This allows the deal to close as planned.
Worry ifRegulatory bodies delay or reject the merger. This affects growth prospects.
Why it matters: This project is key to meeting large-load demand and supports long-term growth. Progress indicates strong customer demand.
Supportive ifAgreements are signed for the 1.8 GW data center project.
Worry ifNo agreements are made, or project timelines are delayed.
Why it matters: Finishing this project is important for energy needs and rules. Delays can affect service.
Worry ifThe Lange II gas-fired generation project is completed and begins service by the end of Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifThe project is delayed beyond the expected timeline.