Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bakkt Holdings Inc/US (BKKT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.17-12.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BKKT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve capital allocation via securities and debt management | It is working on better capital use through debt and securities. | Under Pressure | Capital allocation worsens or leads to financial strain | Qualitative: 2 earnings misses, CFO departure, unregistered securities issuance Q1/Q2 2026 earnings misses, CFO departure, unregistered securities issuance, and price target cut. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, speculative growth business, not a proven compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with volatile management and loss-making earnings quality weighing on confidence.
The valuation signal fell from 59.9 to 33.5, and the overall signal changed from mixed to cautious. The evidence does not provide peer comparisons or specific market expectations, so whether the business is cheap or expensive versus peers is unclear; repeated misses and weak recent performance are visible concerns.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss leave execution fragile. Over the multi-year view, management is integrating DTR and expanding its platforms, but crypto services revenue fell sharply year over year in 2026-Q1, and the new embedded finance products have no disclosed financial impact yet.
The thesis hinges on whether DTR integration and platform expansion produce measurable progress, and whether new products gain traction. A guidance cut would add pressure to the near-term outlook, while easier interest rates or stabilization in technology-sector peers could improve the backdrop without resolving company-specific execution risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BKKT remains an uncertain growth story with meaningful execution and earnings risks. The long-term thesis needs clearer evidence that new initiatives can support stronger, more consistent fundamentals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to improve earnings after recent losses. |
| Broken |
| Net income worsens beyond -$11.65M in next 4 quarters |
Net income: $80.842M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income improves from -$11.65M in 2026-Q1 toward breakeven. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202680,842,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $299 million in 2025 | Bakkt aims to grow revenue to about $299 million in 2025. | Intact | Revenue falls below $280 million in FY25 | Revenue: $170.149M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$299 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026170,149,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.82 → $-0.02 · observed estimates
$7.58B → $4.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.82 | $7,585,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.02 | $4,125,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.