Bakkt Holdings Inc/US (BKKT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.17-12.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKKT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 24 industry peers
BKKT — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-17
CFO — Karen Alexander: The CFO departed via a mutual agreement with a structured transition period and no stated disagreement, indicating an orderly but significant executive change.
Why it matters: These launches are a key step in turning Bakkt Agent into a live service. Delays could push back user growth.
Watch forBakkt names a partner or client launch for a co-branded card or Neobank-as-a-Service product in Q4 2026.
Also watch forBakkt reports no Q4 launch, or says partner, bank, network, or approval needs delayed launch.
Why it matters: Bakkt needs new client launches to lift transaction volume. Q3 results will show if activity is gaining pace.
Watch forOn November 9, Bakkt reports Q3 volume at a pace that keeps full-year 2026 volume near $2.5 billion.
Also watch forQ3 volume is below the pace needed for $2.5 billion in 2026, or Bakkt cuts that goal.
Why it matters: Bakkt remains loss-making after excluding non-cash gains. A smaller loss would show better control of business costs.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is less than $11.8 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is $11.8 million or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$350 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,000 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,252 loss on $10,000 · 82.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.