Bakkt Holdings Inc/US (BKKT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.33-0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKKT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BKKT — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-17
CFO — Karen Alexander: The CFO departed via a mutual agreement with a structured transition period and no stated disagreement, indicating an orderly but significant executive change.
Why it matters: A clear plan for spending money can help gain investor trust and improve efficiency.
Watch forManagement shared a clear plan for spending money with specific goals.
Also watch forThere are no updates or unclear statements about how money will be spent.
Why it matters: Finalizing deals with Zoth will help Bakkt reach more customers in stablecoin payments.
Supportive ifBakkt says they signed agreements with Zoth. These are for stablecoin operations.
Worry ifNo agreements are reached with Zoth, delaying market expansion plans.
Why it matters: Finalizing this agreement could help Bakkt reach more customers. It may also improve services.
Supportive ifA press release says the commercial agreements with Zoth have been signed.
Worry ifNo agreement is made, or the partnership is delayed. This limits market growth.
Why it matters: DTR is important for Bakkt's growth in payments and stablecoin services.
Supportive ifManagement says DTR's AI payment systems and stablecoin systems are working well.
Worry ifIntegration efforts slow down or face big delays. This affects growth plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$372 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,101 loss on $10,000 · 11.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,479 loss on $10,000 · 84.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash position affects Bakkt's ability to grow.
Watch forCash and cash equivalents are over $82.6 million after Q2.
Also watch forCash and cash equivalents drop below $82.6 million after Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a weakening position in the tech sector. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifBakkt's revenue growth falls below the sector median growth rate.
Less concerning ifBakkt's revenue growth remains at or above the sector median growth rate.
Why it matters: Hitting this TTV target is important. It supports Bakkt's growth strategy and market position.
Supportive ifTTV reported at or above $2.5 billion for full-year 2026.
Worry ifTTV is below $2 billion. This shows growth is slower than expected.
Why it matters: Improving earnings is crucial for Bakkt to regain investor confidence. It shows better cost management.
Supportive ifNet income for the next quarter shows a positive turnaround from the previous loss of -$11.65M.
Worry ifNet income continues to decline or remains negative in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: More user engagement is vital for Bakkt. It helps with long-term success and making money.
Supportive ifMonthly Active Users reported at or above 25,000 as of December 2026.
Worry ifMAUs are below 25,000. This shows weak user adoption.
Why it matters: Changes in cash reserves show Bakkt's financial health and its ability to grow.
Watch forCash and cash equivalents rose to $82.6 million. This happened after the DTR acquisition.
Also watch forCash reserves drop or stay the same, showing financial trouble.
Why it matters: DTR is important. It helps Bakkt improve payment options and market strength.
Supportive ifBakkt says it has added payment options from DTR integration.
Worry ifDelays in integration or failure to launch new payment features as planned.
Why it matters: This product launch can drive user engagement and revenue. It represents a new service offering.
Supportive ifBakkt will launch Agent Embedded Finance with partners by Q4 2026.
Worry ifDelay in the launch or failure to secure partner integrations by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Successful integration of DTR is key for Bakkt's growth strategy. It combines AI and stablecoin tech.
Supportive ifManagement says they have met key integration goals. This includes working better together and launching new products.
Worry ifThere are delays in integration. Planned synergies have not been achieved.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong growth in Bakkt's transaction abilities.
Supportive ifTotal Transacting Volume hits about $2.5 billion for the full year 2026.
Worry ifTTV is far below $2.5 billion. This shows ongoing market problems.