Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BlackSky Technology, Inc. (BKSY)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.12+14.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BKSY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $12 million and $24 million in FY26 | The company targets positive adjusted EBITDA of $12-$24 million in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $12 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with meaningful execution and sector risks, not a proven compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: the signal recently improved from cautious to mixed, while performance remains well below its industry cohort.
BKSY trades at a sizable premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence points to an expectations gap tied to future growth options, but the premium is not paired with the broader set of weak, turbulent conditions that would make the setup especially fragile.
Near term, management has reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance after revenue rose from the first quarter to the second, and adjusted EBITDA moved from a loss to a profit. Progress is mixed on spending and profitability goals, while losses, weak relative performance, and a high-risk sector backdrop remain concerns.
The next major test is whether management maintains its 2026 guidance; a cut would weaken the case for sustained execution. The multi-year thesis also depends on continued revenue growth and progress toward positive adjusted EBITDA, while results from sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the broader backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, BKSY’s case depends on turning recent operating progress into durable growth and profitability, despite a peer-premium valuation and elevated risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending is controlled between $50 million and $60 million. |
| Intact |
| Capex exceeds $60 million or falls below $50 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $3.421M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 50-60 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20263,421,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $130 million and $150 million in FY26 | Capital spending is controlled between $50 million and $60 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $130 million in FY26 | Revenue: $33.316M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=130 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202633,316,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.55 → $-0.47 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.55 | $182,785,640 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.55 | $182,785,640 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.55 | $182,785,640 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.61 | $181,709,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.38 | $182,785,640 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.61 | $181,709,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.38 | $184,873,140 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.38 | $184,873,140 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.38 | $184,873,140 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.36 | $190,045,250 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.36 | $191,532,750 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.36 | $191,532,750 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.61 | $181,709,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.61 | $181,709,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.61 | $181,709,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.61 | $181,709,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.61 | $181,709,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.61 | $181,709,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.48 | $191,080,289 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.41 | $193,015,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.47 | $192,758,067 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.47 | $192,762,444 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.