BlackSky Technology, Inc. (BKSY)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.50-0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
BlackSky aims to grow revenue to $130-$150 million in 2026. The company targets positive adjusted EBITDA of $12-$24 million in 2026. Capital spending is controlled between $50 million and $60 million. These goals show a path to profitability and growth.
The company is loss-making with negative EPS expected through 2027. Recent quarters showed revenue declines and earnings misses. The stock has sold off sharply, reflecting risk. Execution and growth remain uncertain.
The market prices in about 52% revenue growth but expects continued losses. Our fair value is about 8% above the current price but 29% below the Street median, reflecting skepticism. We see risk in meeting profitability targets.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $12 million in FY26
The company expects adjusted EBITDA to be between $12 million and $24 million for the full year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation, as BKSY is currently loss-making but aims to improve its financial performance. The thesis is in a cautious state due to recent weak results and high risks in the sector.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with a low expectations gap. However, BKSY trades at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors may expect some recovery despite the current challenges.
Management has set priorities to increase revenue and achieve positive adjusted EBITDA, showing some progress. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and the company’s momentum has significantly declined.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue and EBITDA targets while navigating sector headwinds. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like UBER and ADP will be crucial in determining BKSY's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss contributed to this change. Additionally, a sharp drop in the stock price suggests the market is repricing the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $60 million or falls below $50 million in FY26
Continue capital expenditures in the range of $50 million to $60 million for full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures were $15.8 million in 2026-Q1 and $15.4 million in 2026-Q2, consistent with the maintained full year guidance of $50 million to $60 million. Management has consistently maintained this CAPEX range, showing delivery on this commitment.
“Capital expenditures between $50 million and $60 million for full year 2026.”
“The Company is maintaining its full year 2026 outlook for capital expenditures of between $50 million and $60 million.”
“Full year 2026 capital expenditures to be between $50 million and $60 million.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $130 million in FY26
Raise full year 2026 revenue outlook based on strong sales and demand for Gen-3 space-based intelligence services.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $20.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $33.3 million in 2026-Q2, a 60% increase quarter-over-quarter. Management raised and then reaffirmed full year 2026 revenue guidance to between $130 million and $150 million, reflecting delivery and accelerating growth.
“BlackSky is reaffirming its full year 2026 outlook... revenue between $130 million and $150 million.”
“We are raising our guidance for the year... Revenue is now expected to be between $130 million and $150 million.”
Overall, BKSY's outlook is uncertain, with potential for improvement if management executes well, but significant risks remain. Not investment advice.