BlackSky Technology, Inc. (BKSY)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.50-0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKSY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 54.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BKSY — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-08-13
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On August 7, 2026, the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) notified BlackSky Technology Inc. (the “Company”), and, on August 10, 2026, the NYSE publicly announced that it has determined to (a) commence proceedings to delist the Company’s warrants, exercisable for shares of Class A common stock at an exercise price of $92.00 per share (the “Warrants”) which expire in September 2026 and (b) imm…
Why it matters: Flat or lower cash operating expenses mean better cost management. This helps future profits.
Supportive ifCash operating expenses are flat or lower than Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash operating expenses rise a lot compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping cash operating costs low is key. It helps improve profits and manage costs.
Supportive ifCash operating expenses in Q3 stay below $20 million.
Worry ifCash operating expenses are over $22 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows demand for Gen-3 services. This backs management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 50% year over year, reaching over $50 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 30% compared to last year. This shows weakening demand.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss for Q2 is less than $25 million.
Worry ifNet loss for Q2 exceeds $30 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$366 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,139 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,029 loss on $10,000 · 60.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it may help BlackSky's performance. It shows a healthier market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back toward its highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still slowing down.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if BlackSky can improve its financial losses. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows a smaller loss than the previous quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Getting new contracts shows strong demand for BlackSky's services. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew contracts won in Q3 exceed $150 million in total value.
Worry ifNew contracts won in Q3 are below $100 million in total value.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy and execution. This can affect performance.
Watch forThe new CFO is using strategies that improve financial results.
Also watch forNew CFO's strategies lead to further financial decline.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows better cost control. It also shows revenue growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss narrows to less than $5 million in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss widens beyond $5 million in Q2.
Why it matters: New contracts can drive revenue growth and validate demand for BlackSky's services.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts valued over $50 million in Q2.
Worry ifNo new significant contracts announced in Q2.
Why it matters: Confirmation or a revision of revenue guidance will show if demand for Gen-3 solutions is strong.
Watch forManagement raises revenue guidance for 2026. It is now over $130 million.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance for 2026. It is now below $130 million.
Why it matters: Stable leadership after the CFO change is key for keeping investor trust.
Watch forCompany announces a new CFO with a strong track record within a month.
Also watch forNo new CFO is announced within a month, leading to further instability.
Why it matters: The launch of the next Gen-3 satellite is key for expanding services and revenue.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch of the next two Gen-3 satellites as planned in Q3.
Worry ifThe launch is delayed past Q3. This affects service expansion plans.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows confidence in growth and demand.
Supportive ifManagement confirms that 2026 revenue will be between $130 million and $150 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance to below $130 million. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA means the company is making progress. It shows they are becoming more efficient.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is positive. This means better financial health.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is still negative. This shows that there are ongoing operational issues.
Why it matters: The result will affect investor trust and stock stability.
Worry ifBlackSky fixes the NYSE delisting notice and keeps its listing.
Less concerning ifDelisting happens, causing a big drop in stock price and investor trust.