BlackSky Technology, Inc. (BKSY)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.12+14.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKSY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 263.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 63.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 199.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
BKSY — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-08-13
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On August 7, 2026, the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) notified BlackSky Technology Inc. (the “Company”), and, on August 10, 2026, the NYSE publicly announced that it has determined to (a) commence proceedings to delist the Company’s warrants, exercisable for shares of Class A common stock at an exercise price of $92.00 per share (the “Warrants”) which expire in September 2026 and (b) imm…
Why it matters: More Gen-3 satellites can add capacity for imagery and AI services. Q2 growth was tied to demand for Gen-3.
Supportive ifBoth planned satellites launch, enter service, and start sending images in Q3 or soon after.
Worry ifEither launch is delayed beyond the stated Q3 window, or a satellite fails to enter service.
Why it matters: A lower rate can show that high-margin intelligence services make up more of sales. The broader industrial sector faces a headwind, but it is not a direct demand measure for BlackSky.
Supportive ifQ3 cost of sales is below 27% of revenue. BlackSky also reports continued growth in space-based intelligence and AI services.
Worry ifQ3 cost of sales rises above 27%, or those services fall as a share of revenue.
Why it matters: The NYSE began proceedings to delist warrants that expire in September 2026. A final notice will clarify the outcome for those warrants.
Worry ifThe NYSE delists BlackSky warrants or says they no longer meet a continued listing rule.
Less concerning ifThe NYSE ends the proceedings without delisting the warrants, or confirms they meet the listing rules.
Why it matters: The range is tied to satellite and service growth. Q1 and Q2 spending totaled $31.2 million, leaving $18.8 million to $28.8 million for the rest of 2026.
Watch forFull-year 2026 capital spending lands between $50 million and $60 million, with no change to the range.
Also watch forBlackSky cuts or raises the range, or full-year spending falls outside it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$358 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,094 loss on $10,000 · 10.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,777 loss on $10,000 · 67.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Renewals and new orders can keep government work flowing. BlackSky reported NGA Luno renewals and new Space Force orders.
Supportive ifBlackSky reports another NGA Luno renewal or new U.S. Space Force marketplace order with a stated contract value.
Worry ifBlackSky reports a lost or smaller NGA Luno award, or no new orders through the named programs in its next update.
Why it matters: Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a $5.1 million loss; Q2 was positive $4.7 million. More progress would support the full-year target.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 and Q4 covers the rest of the amount needed to reach $12 million for 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts the $12 million floor, or reported results leave too little time to reach it.
Why it matters: Q3 results on November 5 will show if sales growth supports the full-year range. Q2 revenue was $33.3 million, up 50% year over year.
Watch forQ3 revenue keeps the company on pace for at least $130 million in 2026 revenue, and management keeps the full-year range.
Also watch forManagement lowers the $130 million floor, or results show the floor cannot be reached.