Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BKV Corp. (BKV)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.09-5.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.89 → 1.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BKV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital expenditures within $570-$740M for 2026 | A primary condition in BKV Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $570M-$740M. | Broken | CAPEX exceeds $740M or falls below $570M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $86.838M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $570M-$740M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202686,838,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy-sector growth and execution story, with a potential tailwind from power demand rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality remains loss-making and management execution has been volatile.
BKV is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment says expectations are broadly justified, with low fragility. The evidence does not show a large expectations gap, and the valuation model has medium confidence; the sector’s turbulent backdrop remains a key uncertainty.
Near term, production has been within the company’s stated 2026 range, while power-segment Adjusted EBITDAX rose from $18.4 million to $20.4 million year over year in the first quarter. Power growth has concrete support from a 1,200 MW equipment supply contract, but capital spending progress is mixed and earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down.
The multi-year view depends on BKV sustaining production growth, advancing its power segment, and securing long-term power agreements while keeping capital spending controlled. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strong results and higher guidance from energy-sector bellwethers could support the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, the case rests on converting operational progress and power-sector plans into more reliable financial results, while managing capital and sector exposure. Losses and uneven execution remain important checks on the intact thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our first quarter results reflect a continued focus on disciplined capital allocation as we invest in growth across our platform,” said David Tameron, Chief Financial Officer of BKV.” “Capital Expenditures Accrued capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2026 were $118.6 million, which included $81.9 million for Upstream/Midstream development capital, $16.7 million for Power, and $20.0 million for CCUS and other expenditures.”
Increase net production to 915-955 MMcfe/d by year end | BKV aims to grow production to 915-955 MMcfe/d by end of 2026. | Intact | net production falls below 915 MMcfe/d by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The upstream business continues to serve as a durable cash engine for the Company, generating consistent cash flow while improving capital efficiency across the asset base.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Enhance cash from operating activities | Cash from operating activities rose to $71.99M in Q1 2026, showing improving efficiency. | Intact | cash from operating activities falls below $70M in any quarter | Cash from operations: $109.742M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Increase cash from operating activities above $71.99M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026109,742,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.88 → $1.97 · observed estimates
$1.54B → $1.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.88 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.88 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.88 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.88 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.88 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.98 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.98 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.98 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.97 | $1,628,805,112 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.98 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.98 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.98 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.98 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.97 | $1,536,908,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.96 | $1,628,805,112 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.97 | $1,542,008,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.97 | $1,542,008,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.97 | $1,542,008,940 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.83 | $1,510,386,700 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.92 | $1,510,386,700 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.92 | $1,510,386,700 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.96 | $1,628,805,112 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.96 | $1,628,805,112 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.96 | $1,628,805,112 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.96 | $1,628,805,112 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.96 | $1,628,805,112 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.96 | $1,628,805,112 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.86 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.81 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.81 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.82 | $1,744,885,969 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.85 | $1,784,973,979 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.85 | $1,784,973,979 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.85 | $1,784,973,979 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.85 | $1,784,973,979 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.89 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.88 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.88 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.88 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.88 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.88 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.88 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.88 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.93 | $1,666,943,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.00 | $1,663,568,439 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.01 | $1,746,649,645 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.99 | $1,741,506,787 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.99 | $1,741,506,787 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.99 | $1,647,424,585 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.99 | $1,647,424,585 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.95 | $1,647,424,585 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.96 | $1,647,424,585 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.98 | $1,660,208,752 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.98 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.98 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.98 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.98 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.98 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.98 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.98 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.00 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.00 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.00 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.00 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.00 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.97 | $1,669,543,194 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.