BKV Corp. (BKV)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.09-5.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BKV — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-14
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: BKV reported 925 MMcfe/d in Q1 and set a 2026 production goal. Q3 results will show whether output stays on pace.
Supportive ifBKV reports Q3 2026 net production at or above 915 MMcfe/d.
Worry ifBKV reports Q3 2026 net production below 915 MMcfe/d.
Why it matters: BKV has reserved equipment for a 1,200 MW Texas project. The report can show whether offtake talks support that plan.
Watch forBKV reports agreed offtake terms or a clear step toward a deal for the Texas project.
Also watch forBKV reports no progress on offtake talks, or says the project plan has slipped.
Why it matters: A signed deal with the named hyperscaler would support the Temple project. No deal by the deadline lets BKV end the equipment contract.
Watch forBKV and the hyperscaler announce agreed power offtake terms by March 31, 2027.
Also watch forNo agreed offtake terms by March 31, 2027, or BKV ends the equipment contract.
Why it matters: The Texas power project needs large equipment orders. Spending within the stated range would show capital stays near plan.
Worry ifBKV reports accrued capital spending above $740 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifBKV reports 2026 accrued capital spending at or below $740 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $513 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,061 loss on $10,000 · 40.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.