BKV Corp. (BKV)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.06-0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BKV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BKV — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement On May 20, 2026, BKV Corporation (“BKV”), BKV Upstream Midstream, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“BKV Upstream Midstream”), and certain of BKV Upstream Midstream’s subsidiaries, as guarantors, entered into a Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Sixth Amendment”) with Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the Lenders (as defined in the Sixth Amendment) party thereto. The Sixth Amendment amen…
Why it matters: Meeting this production target shows BKV can grow. It also shows good operational efficiency.
Supportive ifNet production reported at or above 915 MMcfe/d in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet production reported below 915 MMcfe/d in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This range is the updated guidance for 2026. Staying within it shows disciplined spending.
Supportive ifCapital spending for 2026 is still between $690-$875 million.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $875 million.
Why it matters: Long-term PPAs can help make revenue clearer. They also support growth in the power segment.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a signed long-term PPA for the Power JV's Temple plants.
Worry ifThere is no progress on PPA talks. Delays in negotiations have been reported.
Why it matters: A shift from headwind to a more favorable regime could improve BKV's outlook. It may indicate better market conditions.
Supportive ifSector regime status changes from headwind to neutral or tailwind.
Worry ifSector regime status remains a headwind.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $467 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,848 loss on $10,000 · 28.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it signals a positive change in the energy sector. This could help BKV's performance.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth for BKV turns positive, exceeding 2%.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% or declines further.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if BKV continues its positive momentum from Q1. A strong report can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows net income above $44.1 million, matching or exceeding Q1 results.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report shows net income below $44.1 million. This suggests a possible decline.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows strong operations and helps with growth plans.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Power Growth reported above $20 million.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Power Growth reported below $20 million.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows BKV uses capital wisely. It also shows good financial health.
Supportive ifAccrued capital expenditures were between $570M and $740M in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, capital spending was more than $740M.
Why it matters: Securing a PPA would enhance revenue visibility and support growth in the power segment. This is key for BKV's expansion strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a long-term PPA for the power segment.
Worry ifThere has been no news about getting a long-term PPA.
Why it matters: This range is the updated guidance for Q2. Meeting it shows BKV is on track for growth.
Supportive ifReported net production for Q2 is within the range of 925-975 MMcfe/d.
Worry ifNet production falls below 925 MMcfe/d.
Why it matters: A confirmed earnings beat shows strong performance and investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows results better than what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report falls short of analyst expectations.
Why it matters: These agreements are important for seeing revenue and growth in the power segment.
Supportive ifA long-term PPA was signed with a major partner.
Worry ifNo updates on PPA talks in the next reports.