Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD)
NASDAQIndustrialsAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.63-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLBD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 27.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLBD — director transition
Dated 2026-05-04
Class III Director — Steve Girardin: Steve Girardin was appointed as a Class III Director and will serve on the Nominating Committee.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing. They will also show future plans.
Watch forBlue Bird reports Q3 earnings with revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forBlue Bird reports Q3 earnings with revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth is key to achieving long-term financial goals.
Supportive ifRevenue growth is above 5% year-over-year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows confidence in growth and demand. It reflects Blue Bird's market position.
Supportive ifManagement raises FY 2026 revenue guidance to $1.75 billion or more.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers FY 2026 revenue guidance to below $1.7 billion.
Why it matters: If unit sales go up, it shows demand is back. This helps growth plans.
Supportive ifQ4 unit sales exceed 3,525 buses sold, showing recovery from Q3's decline.
Worry ifQ4 unit sales are below 3,525 buses sold. This shows demand is still weak.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $359 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,865 loss on $10,000 · 28.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting or exceeding this target shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive if2026 Adj. EBITDA reported at or above $247 million.
Worry ifIf 2026 Adj. EBITDA is below $225 million, this shows operational challenges.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Blue Bird's long-term plans. Progress is currently limited.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year, moving closer to the $2.5B target.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is under 5% compared to last year. This shows ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong performance and helps long-term plans.
Supportive ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA should be $75 million or more.
Worry ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA should be less than $65 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong business growth.
Supportive ifRevenue for the fiscal year reaches or exceeds $2.5 billion.
Worry ifRevenue falls short of $2.5 billion, suggesting slower growth.
Why it matters: If tariffs hurt revenue, it may show problems with cost management.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher margin is important for Blue Bird's profit goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 15% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is under 12%. This shows no progress.
Why it matters: Closing the Ford deal would enhance Blue Bird's product offerings and market position.
Supportive ifThe Ford collaboration deal may close by early 2027.
Worry ifThe Ford collaboration deal may be delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for Blue Bird Corp. in a maturing sector.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to 8% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Exceeding $500 million in revenue shows strong demand and success in growth strategies.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue is over $500 million, showing strong sales performance.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue is below $500 million. This suggests weaker demand or operational problems.
Why it matters: Selling over 3,500 units shows strong demand and good bus sales.
Supportive ifQ4 unit sales exceed 3,500, indicating strong demand for Blue Bird buses.
Worry ifIf Q4 unit sales are under 3,000, this means weaker demand or problems.
Why it matters: Closing the Ford deal would enhance Blue Bird's product offerings and market position.
Supportive ifLook for the official news about the Ford deal and Detroit Chassis purchase.
Worry ifWatch for any delays or cancellations of the Ford deal closing.
Why it matters: Changes at Caterpillar and GE may affect Blue Bird's position and market views.
Watch forCaterpillar and GE have better insight scores over 20.
Also watch forCaterpillar and GE's insight scores fall below 10.
Why it matters: If unit sales keep falling, it may show problems with demand or production.
Worry ifLegacy Blue Bird unit sales drop below 2,290 units in Q3.
Less concerning ifLegacy Blue Bird unit sales stabilize or increase above 2,290 units in Q3.
Why it matters: A strong backlog of electric bus orders helps future revenue growth and market position.
Supportive ifFirm order backlog for electric buses exceeds 770 units in Q3.
Worry ifFirm order backlog for electric buses falls below 770 units in Q3.
Why it matters: Closing this deal is important for Blue Bird's chassis work and product range.
Supportive ifThey said they finished buying the Detroit Chassis assets.
Worry ifThere might be a delay or cancellation of the Detroit Chassis asset purchase.