Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD)
NASDAQIndustrialsAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.19-2.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLBD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
BLBD — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-10-06
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information included in
Why it matters: The Ford deal adds a new business line. Closing the asset purchase and starting production on time would support the growth plan.
Supportive ifBlue Bird confirms the Detroit Plant asset purchase closes and keeps early 2028 as the start of new chassis production.
Worry ifBlue Bird reports that the asset purchase did not close, or moves planned production beyond early 2028.
Why it matters: Management targets growth in electric buses. More deliveries and firm orders would support that plan.
Supportive ifThe next report shows EV deliveries above 355 and firm EV orders back above 770 buses.
Worry ifThe next report shows fewer EV deliveries than 355 and firm orders below 770 buses.
Why it matters: The new facility gives Blue Bird more room to fund projects. Rising debt or leverage could limit that flexibility.
Watch forBlue Bird reports that borrowings fund stated projects while net leverage stays below the 3.25x limit.
Also watch forBlue Bird reports net leverage at or above 3.25x, or draws debt without clear use for stated projects.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $351 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,190 loss on $10,000 · 31.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.