Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD)
NASDAQIndustrialsAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.63-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLBD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $64 BLBD trades at 14× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $79 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $85–$95. Note: our $79 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($85–$95). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $86.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $106.94 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $116.39 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $43.77 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$85.00 – $95.00 (median $93.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 12% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 0.7 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.42/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $63.99 |
| 15.4 |
| 4.11 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $93.51 | 21.5 | 4.36 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $97.77 | 21.4 | 4.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $47.22 | 1.0 | 45.54 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $22.70 | 5.0 | 4.57 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $29.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $75.38 | 16.5 | 4.57 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $105.35 | 21.4 | 4.92 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $135.04 | 21.5 | 6.29 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $110.61 | 21.4 | 5.17 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $65.23 | 1.0 | 62.90 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $25.68 | 5.0 | 5.17 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $85.28 | 16.5 | 5.17 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $172.52 | 21.5 | 8.04 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $132.17 | 21.4 | 6.18 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $77.94 | 1.0 | 75.17 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $30.69 | 5.0 | 6.18 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $101.90 | 16.5 | 6.18 | Analyst | high |