Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$78.39-4.79%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.39. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $78 BLDR trades at 16× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $81–$121. Not investment advice.
$81.00 – $121.00 (median $100.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11.49/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $100.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $28.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $63.19 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $47.69 | 23.8 | 2.00 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $127.57 | 14.0 | 12.10 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $170.55 | 21.7 | 7.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $116.12 | 23.8 | 4.87 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $237.23 | 1.8 | 134.89 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $118.30 | 24.3 | 4.87 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $40.11 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $68.18 | 14.0 | 4.87 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $119.79 | 23.8 | 5.02 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $69.83 | 23.8 | 2.93 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $39.95 | 21.7 | 1.84 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $144.41 | 23.8 | 6.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $257.69 | 1.8 | 146.52 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $147.12 | 24.3 | 6.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $84.79 | 14.0 | 6.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $90.04 | 23.8 | 3.78 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $15.18 | 21.7 | 0.70 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $149.91 | 23.8 | 6.29 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $267.51 | 1.8 | 152.11 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $152.73 | 24.3 | 6.29 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $88.03 | 14.0 | 6.29 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.