Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$65.50-5.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.39 → 2.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BLDR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margin between 27.5% and 29% in 2026 | A primary condition in Builders FirstSource's published investment case. The stated target is 27.5% to 29% gross margin. | Under Pressure | gross margin falls below 27.5% in FY26 | Gross margin: 27.82% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 27.5% to 29% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202627.821553 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical building-products business with a recovering earnings picture, rather than a clear long-term compounder. The thesis has recently shifted from fragile to robust, but its current state remains watch because the sector backdrop is a headwind and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: BLDR is described as expensive overall, while one measure says it is cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and priced-in risk is tagged as justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near-term results have strengthened, including an October earnings beat, and company momentum improved; recent performance is back in the upper half of its industry. However, third-quarter revenue was lower year over year, free cash flow fell sharply, and productivity savings are partly offset by limited progress on value-added offerings and capital flexibility. Erratic, declining earnings surprises and the risk of a guidance cut remain near-term concerns.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on BLDR sustaining its recovery without cutting guidance and on productivity savings continuing to support execution. Over the multi-year view, progress in technology and customer offerings, stronger cash generation, and the direction of sector bellwethers JCI, MAS, and CSL are key swing factors.
For the next 1 to 3 years, BLDR presents a recovering but cyclical business case, with strong recent performance balanced by execution gaps, sector headwinds, and elevated risk. The long-term thesis hinges on durable operating progress and continued recovery, while valuation remains expensive overall. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Builders FirstSource's published investment case. The stated target is No further major leadership disruptions in next 4 quarters. |
| Under Pressure |
| Additional key leadership departures or governance issues arise |
2 departures vs 0 allowed Board resignation (Jun) and President departure (Aug) confirm leadership instability despite neutral COO promotion. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue target of $14.6-$15.6 billion | A primary condition in Builders FirstSource's published investment case. The stated target is >= $14.6 billion total revenue. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $14.6 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $3.854B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $14.6 billion total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20263,854,048,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute $500 million share repurchase program | A $500 million share buyback supports shareholder value. | Intact | buyback program halted or materially delayed in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.98 → $2.71 · observed estimates
$15.61B → $14.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.98 | $15,607,593,960 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.96 | $15,577,689,780 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.96 | $15,577,689,780 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.96 | $15,577,689,780 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.96 | $15,577,689,780 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.94 | $15,571,585,230 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.94 | $15,571,585,230 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.79 | $15,456,513,100 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.79 | $15,456,513,100 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.73 | $15,045,230,372 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.60 | $14,970,583,810 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.60 | $14,970,583,810 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.55 | $14,917,174,720 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.55 | $14,917,174,720 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.73 | $15,045,230,372 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.47 | $14,874,015,630 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.47 | $14,874,015,630 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.47 | $14,874,015,630 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.47 | $14,874,015,630 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.47 | $14,874,015,630 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.47 | $14,874,015,630 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.73 | $15,045,230,372 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.73 | $15,045,230,372 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.73 | $15,045,230,372 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.73 | $15,045,230,372 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.73 | $15,045,230,372 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.73 | $15,045,230,372 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.49 | $14,910,057,679 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.49 | $14,910,057,679 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.49 | $14,927,005,275 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.47 | $14,926,838,609 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.45 | $14,926,838,609 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.45 | $14,926,838,609 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.45 | $14,926,838,609 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.45 | $14,926,838,609 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.45 | $14,926,837,923 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.45 | $14,926,837,923 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.45 | $14,926,837,923 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.45 | $14,926,835,157 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.39 | $14,909,061,990 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.39 | $14,909,061,990 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.39 | $14,909,061,990 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.39 | $14,909,061,990 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.45 | $14,909,061,990 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.41 | $14,879,687,350 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.41 | $14,858,643,350 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.34 | $14,764,103,350 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.34 | $14,764,103,350 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.34 | $14,764,103,350 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.34 | $14,764,103,350 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.25 | $14,726,103,110 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.24 | $14,708,783,110 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.12 | $14,664,085,288 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.08 | $14,607,069,946 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.08 | $14,607,069,946 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.10 | $14,605,712,602 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.10 | $14,605,712,602 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.10 | $14,605,712,602 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.08 | $14,546,736,602 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.08 | $14,546,736,602 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.92 | $14,488,583,503 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.92 | $14,488,583,503 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.92 | $14,488,583,503 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.92 | $14,440,583,503 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.92 | $14,440,583,503 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.95 | $14,420,635,503 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.95 | $14,420,635,503 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.36 | $14,308,082,008 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.93 | $14,205,294,928 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.93 | $14,205,294,928 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.93 | $14,205,294,928 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.72 | $14,174,461,968 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.71 | $14,080,362,687 | 11 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 15 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.