Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$65.79+2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve 2026 revenue target of $14.6-$15.6 billion: FY26 revenue guidance mid $14.4B vs $14.6B target.
Builders FirstSource serves professional builders with essential materials. It targets $14.6-$15.6 billion revenue in 2026. The company aims to keep gross margins near 28%. A $500 million share buyback supports shareholder value.
Revenue fell 10% in Q1 2026 and guidance was cut. Margins declined from 30.5% to 28.3%. Leadership changes raise execution risks. The housing market slowdown may persist, pressuring results.
The stock trades about 4% below our $82 fair value, reflecting modest 4% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 18% below the Street median, signaling cautious outlook. We see risks to revenue and margin targets.
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 27.5% in FY26
Sustain gross profit margin in the range of approximately 27.5% to 28.5% for 2026 despite market challenges.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a long-term thesis on a company facing headwinds in the industrial sector. The current state reflects a mix of robust earnings quality but neutral management performance and recent financial results.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with BLDR being seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential challenges ahead.
Management is focused on achieving its 2026 revenue target despite recent declines in quarterly revenue. While gross margins are under pressure, they remain on track to meet their margin targets, which could stabilize fundamentals in the near term.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and CSL, which could influence BLDR's trajectory. Additionally, any guidance cuts from management could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. This miss reflects ongoing challenges in financial performance compared to industry peers. The company is now under increased scrutiny as it faces a fresh valuation test.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets gross profit margin of 27.5%-28.5% for 2026, down from prior guidance of up to 30%. Actual gross margin declined from 30.4% in 2025-Q4 to 28.1% in 2026-Q2, reflecting market headwinds. The trajectory shows margin compression consistent with management's updated guidance.
“Gross Profit margin to be in a range of 27.5% to 28.5%.”
“Gross Profit margin to be in a range of 27.5% to 29%.”
“Gross Profit margin to be in a range of 28.5% to 30%.”
Breaks if: Additional key leadership departures or governance issues arise
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $14.6 billion in FY26
Focus on reaching full-year 2026 net sales in the range of $14.0 billion to $14.8 billion despite housing market headwinds.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management guided 2026 net sales to $14.0B-$14.8B in 2026-Q2, down from prior guidance of $14.8B-$15.8B in 2025-Q4, reflecting ongoing housing market weakness. Actual quarterly revenue declined 8.8% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 to $3.9B. The trajectory shows management adjusting expectations downward but maintaining focus on achieving a defined revenue range.
“For 2026, net sales to be in a range of $14.0 billion to $14.8 billion.”
“Net Sales to be in a range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion.”
“Net Sales to be in a range of $14.8 billion to $15.8 billion.”
Breaks if: buyback program halted or materially delayed in FY26
Continue disciplined capital allocation by repurchasing up to $500 million of common stock authorized by the Board.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board authorized a $500 million share repurchase program in 2025-Q4 and reaffirmed it through 2026-Q2. Since August 2021, the Company repurchased 102.6 million shares at a total cost of $8.3 billion. The repurchase authorization remains active with $500 million available, showing ongoing disciplined capital allocation.
“The Company has $500 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization.”
“Board authorized repurchase of up to $500 million of common stock.”
“Board authorized repurchase of up to $500 million of common stock.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BLDR's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and execute on its management priorities. Not investment advice.