Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$65.79+2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
BLDR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, Builders FirstSource, Inc. issued the news release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 reporting its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026.
Why it matters: A significant decline in net sales would confirm ongoing housing market challenges. It would show that the company's revenue targets are at risk.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline worse than -8.8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales decline less than -8.8% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect the company's direction and how well it operates. This is important during tough market times.
Watch forThere is an announcement of a new executive hire or promotion. This strengthens the leadership team.
Also watch forThere are more people leaving the executive team. This shows instability in leadership.
Why it matters: Updates may show confidence in cash flow and how money is used.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks under the $500 million plan.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the buyback program.
Why it matters: If gross margin stabilizes, it shows good cost management. This can help future profits.
Supportive ifGross margin stabilizes above 28.1% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 28.1% in Q3.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$222 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,792 loss on $10,000 · 57.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target would show strong operational efficiency. It could improve margins and cash flow.
Supportive ifSavings will be over $70 million in 2026.
Worry ifSavings will be under $50 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks might show management's trust in the company's value. This could help the share price.
Supportive ifManagement announces they finished a big part of the $500 million share buyback.
Worry ifManagement says they will pause or cut back on share buybacks.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows good cost control and efficiency. This is important in a tough market.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved $50 million in productivity by the end of the year.
Worry ifProductivity savings fall short of $50 million by year-end.
Why it matters: A gross profit margin below 27.5% shows problems with cost management and pricing. This can hurt overall profits.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 27.5%.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin stays above 27.5%.