Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$65.50-5.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLDR — CEO appointment
Dated 2026-10-16
COO — Mr. Hiller: The filing discloses the compensation details for Mr. Hiller's appointment as COO and a transition role for Mr. Herron, which are internal personnel changes rather than a loss of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Core organic sales fell 3.9% in Q3, after a 7.0% drop in Q2. More decline would point to ongoing weak demand.
Worry ifQ4 core organic net sales fall more than 3.9% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 core organic net sales are flat or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Q3 free cash flow fell 83.7% year over year. BLDR's full-year target calls for $400 million to $450 million.
Worry ifBLDR reports 2026 free cash flow below $400 million.
Less concerning ifBLDR reports 2026 free cash flow of at least $400 million.
Why it matters: Management named technology and value-added products as growth priorities. Clear goals would make progress easier to track.
Supportive ifAt Investor Day, BLDR sets a clear target and date for sales or savings from tech or value-added products.
Worry ifAt Investor Day, BLDR gives no clear target or date for tech or value-added products.
Why it matters: Savings can help offset weak sales and lower margins. BLDR had delivered $57 million by the end of Q3.
Supportive ifBLDR reports at least $60 million in 2026 savings from its operations and supply chain work.
Worry ifBLDR reports less than $60 million in 2026 savings.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $504 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,083 loss on $10,000 · 60.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.