Billiontoone Inc (BLLN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$99.39-0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLLN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 103.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 32.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLLN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026 , BillionToOne, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and is not to be in…
Why it matters: This launch could expand market reach and drive revenue growth in prenatal testing.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch of the 130-gene panel for the Unity Fetal Risk Screen.
Worry ifLaunch is delayed or does not meet initial sales expectations.
Why it matters: The new lab space is meant to support growth. Increased capacity can drive revenue higher.
Supportive ifIncreased test volume growth following the opening of the new lab space.
Worry ifNo significant increase in test volume growth after the lab space opens.
Why it matters: New financial obligations could strain cash flow. This would affect future investments and growth potential.
Worry ifCash flow stays stable even with new financial obligations.
Less concerning ifCash flow drops a lot because of new financial obligations.
Why it matters: A drop in tests delivered could show weak demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifTotal tests delivered in Q3 lower than 196,000.
Less concerning ifTotal tests delivered in Q3 higher than 196,000.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$318 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $805 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,081 loss on $10,000 · 50.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new lab space is meant to support growth in test volumes. This could drive revenue.
Supportive ifTest volumes are reported to rise a lot after the new lab lease.
Worry ifTest volumes do not increase or decline after the new lab lease.
Why it matters: Confirming the raised revenue guidance signals strong growth momentum for the year.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported in the range of $112 million to $116 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $112 million.
Why it matters: Completing the lease for new lab space supports growth in test volumes and capacity.
Supportive ifLease completion announced by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifLease completion delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows good cost control and revenue growth. This helps long-term stability.
Supportive ifOperating income is above $0 for the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income is below $0 for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong Q2 earnings results would support the growth narrative and boost confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings beat expectations, showing strong revenue growth.
Worry ifQ2 earnings fall short of expectations, showing slower growth.
Why it matters: If prenatal revenue growth falls below 50%, it may mean the market is full or there is more competition.
Worry ifQ3 prenatal clinical testing revenue growth below 50% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 prenatal clinical testing revenue growth is still above 50% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows BillionToOne is making money. This is true even with growth spending.
Supportive ifOperating income is still positive. It is like $5.5 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income goes below zero in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Management confirmed revenue goals for 2026. This shows strong growth ahead.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance remains within the $450 million to $465 million range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is lowered below $450 million.
Why it matters: This new feature could enhance the product offering and attract more customers.
Supportive ifNorthstar Origin will launch on September 1, 2026.
Worry ifThe launch is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: More tests mean more money. This helps with revenue and profits.
Supportive ifTotal tests delivered grow year over year by more than 35%.
Worry ifTotal tests delivered grow less than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A high profit margin shows good pricing power and control of costs.
Supportive ifGross profit margin stays above 70% in Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin drops below 65% in Q3.