Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.47-4.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.09 → 1.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BLMN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout of $0.15 per share | The company keeps paying a $0.15 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.15 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.15 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2025-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 6, 20250.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a restaurant operator with a measured execution-and-improvement thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is on watch: management priorities appear on track, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
Valuation evidence is mixed: BLMN is described as cheap versus peers, while a separate measure shows a 52% premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in tag is justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear valuation cushion or an especially fragile setup.
Near term, revenue was slightly lower from Q1 to Q2 2026, though above prior-year levels, while restaurant-level margins were stable and operating margins improved year over year. Management raised U.S. comparable-sales guidance and reports progress on execution and cost initiatives; the main near-term risk is a guidance reversal, which could damage credibility.
The multi-year view depends on continued improvement in guest experience, comparable sales, and margins without a reversal of the recent guidance increase. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strength from MCD, SBUX, and YUM would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BLMN’s case is supported by improving margins and stated execution priorities, but mixed revenue movement, elevated risk, and below-cohort performance leave important questions open. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It made $55.65 million net income in Q1 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| Net income falls below $50 million in any quarter |
Net income: $31.344M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $55 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202631,344,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to at least $3.95 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.95 billion. | Under Pressure | Annual revenue falls below $3.9 billion in 2026 | Revenue: $1.016B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.95 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261,015,809,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.97 → $1.08 · observed estimates
$4.03B → $4.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.97 | $4,030,171,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.97 | $4,030,171,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.95 | $4,030,689,537 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.95 | $4,030,689,537 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.95 | $4,030,689,537 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.95 | $4,030,688,012 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.03 | $4,040,251,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.07 | $4,043,978,384 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.07 | $4,044,323,839 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.09 | $4,048,516,223 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.09 | $4,048,516,223 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.09 | $4,048,516,223 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.09 | $4,048,516,223 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.09 | $4,048,378,384 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.08 | $4,047,862,120 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.08 | $4,047,862,120 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.09 | $4,048,531,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.09 | $4,048,531,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.09 | $4,048,531,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.09 | $4,048,531,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.09 | $4,048,531,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.09 | $4,048,531,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.09 | $4,048,687,563 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.09 | $4,048,687,563 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.09 | $4,048,687,563 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.09 | $4,048,687,563 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.09 | $4,048,150,760 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.09 | $4,048,150,760 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.09 | $4,048,150,760 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.09 | $4,048,150,760 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.09 | $4,048,150,760 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.09 | $4,048,150,760 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.08 | $4,049,649,516 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.08 | $4,049,649,516 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.