Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.79+0.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 1.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLMN — President transition
Dated 2026-07-01
Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer — Jessica Mitory: Jessica Mitory resigned as Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows the company is making more money. This can help investors feel good.
Supportive ifQ2 net income was over $50 million. This keeps the good trend going.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls back into negative territory.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue above $1 billion shows strong demand and growth. It can attract more investors.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $1 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue drops below $1 billion.
Why it matters: Exceeding this capex could indicate a shift in spending strategy and affect cash flow.
Worry ifManagement says spending for 2026 is over $195M.
Less concerning ifManagement says spending for 2026 is at or below $195M.
Why it matters: Having positive net income shows the company is improving and can keep going.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $50 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income reported below $0 for Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$212 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $550 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,482 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying above 1.0% shows the company is growing sales and improving guest experience. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifU.S. comparable restaurant sales in Q3 2026 are reported above 1.0%.
Worry ifU.S. comparable restaurant sales fall below 1.0%.
Why it matters: A drop below this level shows worse efficiency and profit.
Worry ifThe restaurant's margin was below 12.0% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifThe restaurant's margin was above 12.0% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level show problems with making money. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 2026 diluted EPS reported worse than -$0.28.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 diluted EPS reported better than -$0.28.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payout remains at $0.15 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifDividend payout is cut below $0.15 per share for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Spending above this level may show poor control over capital use.
Worry ifSpending reported over $195M for 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending reported between $185M and $195M for 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth turns positive, it could help Bloomin' Brands' performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing now and in the future.
Watch forThe earnings report shows sales and profit margins are better than expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows sales and profit margins are lower than expected.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows the company is managing its investments well. It reflects discipline in capital allocation.
Watch forCapital spending was between $185M and $195M.
Also watch forCapital expenditures were outside the range of $185M to $195M.