Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.47-4.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 1.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 16 industry peers
BLMN — M&A activity
Dated 2026-11-02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement The Company, Out West and Out West’s lenders had entered into the Amended and Restated Holistic Resolution Agreement on December 31, 2023 (the “2023 Resolution Agreement”), setting forth agreements among such parties with respect to deferral and forbearance of the parties’ rights with respect to prior payment defaults. The 2023 Resolution Agreement provides for automatic termination upon a bankruptcy filing and that all amounts owed to the Compan…
Why it matters: Bloomin' Brands raised its adjusted EPS range after Q2. Results above the new range would show the earnings gains continued.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS tops $1.00.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS falls below $0.90, the prior low end.
Why it matters: Q2 U.S. comparable sales rose 2.3%, and full-year guidance now runs from 1.0% to 2.0%. Another strong quarter would support the sales turnaround.
Supportive ifQ3 U.S. comparable restaurant sales exceed 2.0%.
Worry ifQ3 U.S. comparable restaurant sales fall below 1.0%.
Why it matters: The credit deal extends the $1.2 billion loan line to 2031, but adds a net leverage test. A breach could limit access to funds.
Worry ifA filing reports a breach of the new senior secured net leverage ratio covenant. It may instead report a waiver for that test.
Less concerning ifA filing shows no covenant breach and the company keeps access to the $1.2 billion facility.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $589 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,482 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.