Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Blend Labs, Inc. (BLND)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.13-11.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.05 → 0.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BLND yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-GAAP operating income >= $5.5M in Q2 2026 | Blend aims for positive operating income with $6.5M in Q2 2026. | Broken | Non-GAAP operating income falls below $5.5M in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"We delivered Q2 with revenue near the high end and non-GAAP operating income above the high end of our guidance, and we did it in a market that isn't giving us much help," said Nima Ghamsari, Co-founder and Head of Blend.” “"We reported Q1 numbers today, which came in higher than expected on revenue and non-GAAP operating income, and I think that's a direct reflection of how we're operating," said Nima Ghamsari, Co-founder and Head of Blend.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth and profitability-improvement story, not yet a proven durable compounder. Management is making progress on its operating priorities, while the long-term thesis remains in a watch state.
The valuation evidence points to BLND being cheap versus peers, and the model describes expectations as below its baseline. The evidence does not show an unusually fragile setup, but the company is still loss-making and valuation alone does not resolve that concern.
Near term, revenue growth and non-GAAP operating income have improved, and the latest reported quarter reached the high end of revenue guidance while operating income exceeded guidance. The signal has turned mixed, and performance remains below the industry cohort; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while the smaller-cap profile and recent peer misses add risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued revenue growth and progress toward positive non-GAAP operating income without a guidance cut. Fed rate cuts or stabilization among large technology peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker peer results or execution could weigh on the setup.
Over a 1-3 year view, improving operating results support the thesis, but losses, high risk, and weaker relative performance leave important execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue between $32M and $34M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Blend Labs, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 32 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $32M in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $33.837M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 32 USD_MILLIONS. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 202633,837,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement $50M share buyback program | The company started a $50M share buyback to boost value. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Returning Capital to Shareholders: Repurchased 11.0 million shares in the second quarter for $18.2 million, $13.2 million remaining on the existing authorization at quarter end.” “• Returning Capital to Shareholders: Repurchased 11.2 million shares in the first quarter for $18.6 million, $31.4 million remaining on the existing authorization at quarter end.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.10 → $0.05 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.10 | $146,692,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.10 | $145,765,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $145,765,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.10 | $145,765,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.07 | $140,610,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.07 | $140,610,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.07 | $140,610,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.10 | $146,701,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.05 | $139,838,633 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.