Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.59-9.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.22 → 0.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BLZE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive cash flow from operations maintained in 2026 | The company had positive cash flow of $3.36 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Cash flow from operations turns negative in FY26 | Cash from operations: $10.427M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 202610,427,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth business with improving operating measures, rather than an established, consistently profitable compounder. The thesis is still being watched: recent performance trails its industry cohort, though the snapshot says it has not freshly broken.
The valuation evidence is mixed: BLZE is marked cheap versus peers, while its valuation score recently rose and the model shows a negative expectations gap. Overall, pricing is tagged as justified with low fragility, but the evidence does not specify exactly what growth or profitability the market assumes.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin have improved, guidance has been raised twice, and operating cash flow has increased; adjusted free cash flow also turned positive in the first half of 2026. These trends support progress, but the company remains loss-making, recent performance is weak relative to its cohort, and smaller-company and peer-miss risks remain.
Over the next year, a key test is whether BLZE delivers on its raised 2026 guidance; reversing course with a cut would damage management credibility. The multi-year view also depends on continued margin and cash-flow progress, while easier interest rates and stabilization among larger technology peers could help the sector backdrop.
For a 1-to-3-year view, BLZE has improving revenue, margin, and cash-flow measures, but the loss-making profile, weak relative performance, and elevated risk leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margin is expected near 24%. |
| Improving |
| Operating margin falls below 23% in FY26 |
Operating margin: -3.02% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=23 PERCENT. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026-3.022249 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA margin range of 30% to 31%, raised from 27% to 29%.” “• Adjusted EBITDA margin range of 23% to 25%, raised from 19% to 21%.” Operating income was $-1.410 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue reaches at least $161.5 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Backblaze, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=161.5 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $161.5 million in FY26 | Revenue: $46.654M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=161.5 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 202646,654,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For full-year 2026, we have raised our outlook: • Revenue between $177.8 million and $178.2 million, raised from $172.0 million to $174.0 million.” “For full-year 2026, we have raised our outlook: • Revenue between $161.5 million to $163.5 million, raised from $156.5 million to $158.5 million.” Revenue was $46.654 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.16 → $0.30 · observed estimates
$0.19B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.17 | $200,097,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.16 | $189,039,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.20 | $194,623,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.28 | $217,199,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.28 | $217,199,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.28 | $217,199,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.28 | $217,199,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.28 | $217,199,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.28 | $217,199,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.25 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.23 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.23 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.23 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.23 | $217,199,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.22 | $217,743,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.24 | $218,871,857 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.30 | $222,601,429 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.30 | $222,601,429 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.