Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.46+1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Backblaze raised revenue guidance to about $162 million for 2026. Profit margin is expected near 24%. The company had positive cash flow of $3.36 million in 2026-Q1. These show the business is improving and growing.
Backblaze is still loss-making with weak cash flow trends. Revenue growth may slow below 16%. Profit margins could fall short of 23%. These risks could stall the turnaround.
The price is about 23% above our fair value near $13. Analysts expect 16% revenue growth. Our fair value is 7% below the Street median of $14.
Breaks if: Cash flow from operations turns negative in FY26
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 23% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $161.5 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making, but it has shown some positive operational trends and management is focused on improving revenue and profitability.
The market appears to have low expectations for BLZE, as indicated by a negative expectations gap. Valuation is aligned with peers, but there is a slight premium, suggesting that the market is cautious about the company's performance.
Management is on track to increase revenue guidance and improve adjusted EBITDA margins. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose risks in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain its revenue growth and improve profitability while navigating potential risks. Key factors include the Fed's interest rate decisions and performance from sector leaders like Microsoft and Oracle.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on BLZE. However, the pricing of $175 million in convertible notes threatens its goal of achieving positive cash flow from operations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, BLZE's trajectory shows promise, but it faces significant challenges ahead. Not investment advice.