Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.59-9.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLZE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLZE — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-24
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under the heading “Indenture” in
Why it matters: Retention below 100% means existing customers spend less overall. Total NRR was 103% in Q2, while Backup NRR was 94%.
Worry ifTotal NRR falls below 100%, or B2 Cloud Storage NRR falls below 100%.
Less concerning ifTotal NRR stays at or above 103%, and B2 Cloud Storage NRR stays at or above 110%.
Why it matters: B2 is the company’s main growth engine. Its growth rose from 24% in Q1 to 34% in Q2.
Supportive ifReported B2 Cloud Storage revenue grows more than 30% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifReported B2 Cloud Storage revenue grows less than 24% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Backblaze raised its 2026 revenue range twice. Q3 results will test whether that growth continues.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $44.8 million, the top of the company’s range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $44.4 million, the bottom of the company’s range.
Why it matters: Backblaze issued $201.25 million of notes due in 2031. The proceeds may fund capital needs, while conversion may add shares.
Watch forCompany filings confirm the notes closed. They show the proceeds went to capital spending or other company needs.
Also watch forA filing shows a failed closing, material change to the stated use of proceeds, or note conversion that adds shares.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$329 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $808 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,456 loss on $10,000 · 64.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company raised its full-year margin range after Q2 reached 30%. Q3 will test whether those gains last.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is above 29%, the top of the company’s range.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is below 27%, the bottom of the company’s range.
Why it matters: The five-year deal adds major customer and revenue concentration. RPO rose by $319.5 million in Q2, led by the deal.
Watch forBackblaze reports rising RPO from the CoreWeave deal and revenue tied to the agreement.
Also watch forBackblaze reports a delay, cut, or loss of the CoreWeave agreement, or falling RPO tied to it.