Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.46+1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BLZE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 28.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BLZE — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-24
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under the heading “Indenture” in
Why it matters: This offering could affect Backblaze's capital structure and future growth. How it uses the funds will be key.
Watch forBackblaze uses money from the notes to fund growth projects.
Also watch forBackblaze has trouble managing the debt or does not use the money well.
Why it matters: This growth shows Backblaze's strong position in the AI market. It confirms the company's strategy to focus on AI-related revenue.
Supportive ifTotal annual contract value from AI customers is above $2 million.
Worry ifTotal annual contract value from AI customers is below $1.5 million.
Why it matters: Updates on the CoreWeave deal may show Backblaze's role in AI. Good news could improve its market position.
Watch forNew announcements about the CoreWeave partnership that expand its scope or value.
Also watch forNo new news or bad news about the CoreWeave partnership.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Backblaze can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of growth or continued losses.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show profits again.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows bigger losses. There is no growth in revenue.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$310 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $654 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,921 loss on $10,000 · 69.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Backblaze. It may affect investor confidence and market positioning.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above median levels.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows the company can fund its operations. It is key for long-term sustainability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive and exceeds $4 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative or under $3 million.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs. This shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin improves by more than 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin declines or stays the same.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key insights into financial health and growth. They can shift investor sentiment.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This margin shows how well Backblaze controls costs while growing. Meeting this target would confirm operational efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin reported within the range of 27% to 29% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 27% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This range shows if Backblaze can keep its growth momentum. Meeting or exceeding this range would confirm strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported within or above the range of $44.4 million to $44.8 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue falls below $44.4 million.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows the company is on track for growth. It signals confidence in future sales.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for 2026 to more than $163.5 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps revenue guidance at or below $161.5 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue target would confirm strong demand and growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $44.4 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $44.4 million.
Why it matters: More AI customers would prove Backblaze's focus on AI work is smart.
Supportive ifAI customer count increases by more than 76% year over year.
Worry ifAI customer count growth slows to below 50% year over year.