Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$159.55-2.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.92 → 4.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BMI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near 40.5% by Q3 2030 | The company targets gross margins near 40% by 2030, showing focus on improving profit. | Intact | gross margin falls below 38% on a sustained basis | Gross margin: 41.9% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~40.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 202641.896176 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BMI is an established business with recent strong financial performance, but its earnings quality is fragile and risks are elevated. The long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as management’s growth goals remain ahead of current delivery.
Valuation is stretched, with BMI at a 1.2-times premium versus peers and an expectations gap of 0.16. The evidence points to some expectations already being reflected in valuation, but does not show that the market is pricing in the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence.
Near term, recent results have been strong, with earnings beats reported in July and October, and operating profit margin improved to 20.2% in Q3. However, revenue was nearly unchanged year over year, management described 2026 revenue excluding acquisitions as flattish, and its long-term high single-digit growth goal remains behind plan. Cost control is improving, but uneven sales and recent misses across the company and peers leave execution risk elevated.
Over the next few quarters, the main negative swing factor is a guidance cut, which could lead analysts to lower estimates. A favorable scenario would include easing interest rates and stabilization among technology sector peers. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on turning the repeated growth commitments and BlueEdge and beyond-the-meter initiatives into sustained revenue growth, while preserving margin gains.
The 1- to 3-year thesis remains intact, but its case rests more on future growth delivery than on current revenue momentum. Strong recent results and better margins are balanced by stretched valuation, fragile earnings quality, and elevated execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash flow remains solid with operating cash around $34M in the latest quarter. |
| Broken |
| operating cash flow falls below $30M per quarter |
Cash from operations: $43.274M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $34M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 202643,274,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 7% in FY2027 | A primary condition in Badger Meter, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY2027 | Revenue growth: 0.12% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 20260.12179 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.10 → $4.94 · observed estimates
$0.99B → $0.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.10 | $993,744,090 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.84 | $984,183,889 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.94 | $988,379,360 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.83 | $984,206,111 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.84 | $984,206,111 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.84 | $984,206,111 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.86 | $985,550,714 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.86 | $985,550,714 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.86 | $985,550,714 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.86 | $985,550,714 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.86 | $985,556,717 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.86 | $985,584,874 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.86 | $985,584,874 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.86 | $985,584,874 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.86 | $985,584,874 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.86 | $985,584,874 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.86 | $985,584,874 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.86 | $985,584,874 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.86 | $985,584,874 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.92 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.91 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.91 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.91 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.91 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.91 | $978,511,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.91 | $978,386,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.91 | $978,386,765 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.91 | $978,403,038 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.91 | $978,403,038 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.94 | $972,608,250 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.94 | $973,133,250 | 8 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
4 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.