Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.58-3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.42 → 2.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BMRC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income at or above $8.5 million per quarter | Bank of Marin Bancorp is improving its profits, with net income rising to $8.51 million in 2026-Q1. | Improving | net income falls below $8.5 million in any quarter | Net income: $9.934M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8.5 million USD quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 20269,934,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BMRC is a regional banking business with a recovery-oriented, cyclical thesis rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: the latest signal improved to mildly favorable, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to BMRC being cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of 0.09. Pricing is described as justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not suggest that weak execution is being fully ignored by the market.
Near term, the October 26 earnings beat is a positive signal, while the low estimated miss risk is tempered by BMRC’s smaller size and recent peer misses. Across the supplied 2026 quarters, net interest margin improved and loans and deposits grew, but loan growth included a purchased pool. Credit quality is mixed, and the broader assessment of recent performance remains weak.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued margin improvement, organic loan and deposit growth, and better credit quality. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, BMRC’s improving margin and recent earnings beat are constructive, but uneven credit signals and weak relative performance leave the long-term thesis unconfirmed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income also grew to $11.6 million, showing better financial health. |
| Intact |
| operating income falls below $11.6 million in any quarter |
Operating income: $13.674M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11.6 million USD quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 202613,674,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share maintained | The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.25 per share each quarter. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.25 per share in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.25 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. May 8, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -5% annually | A primary condition in Bank of Marin Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=-5% annual revenue growth. | Intact | revenue declines more than 5% year over year in FY26 | Revenue growth: 13.38% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=-5% annual revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 26, 202613.37564 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.40 → $2.52 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.40 | $148,219,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.40 | $148,219,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.40 | $148,219,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.40 | $147,975,800 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.40 | $148,219,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.37 | $146,942,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.37 | $146,942,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.37 | $146,942,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.39 | $147,922,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.40 | $147,392,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.40 | $147,392,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.40 | $147,392,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.40 | $147,392,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.40 | $147,313,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.40 | $147,313,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.40 | $147,313,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.40 | $147,313,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.40 | $147,313,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.40 | $147,313,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.40 | $147,313,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.40 | $147,193,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.40 | $146,993,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.42 | $146,910,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.44 | $146,295,120 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.44 | $146,295,120 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.44 | $146,295,120 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.44 | $146,295,120 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.44 | $146,295,120 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.44 | $146,295,120 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.49 | $146,958,720 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.52 | $147,078,720 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.