Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.58-3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BMRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BMRC — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-26
Other Events In the press release, Bancorp announced that on October 22, 2026, its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividen d of $0.25 p er share. The cash dividend is payable on November 12, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 5, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Why it matters: Margin rose to 3.48% in Q3 as loan yields rose and deposit costs fell. A further rise would support earnings.
Supportive ifThe next report shows net interest margin above 3.48%, adjusted for taxes. Average deposit costs are at or below 1.24%.
Worry ifThe next report shows margin below 3.38% or average deposit costs above 1.28%.
Why it matters: Loans rose 2.07% in Q3, but growth included a $31.1 million purchased pool. Organic growth would show that new lending is also adding to balances.
Supportive ifLoans rise above $2.144 billion in the next report, and newly funded loans exceed payoffs without a material loan pool purchase.
Worry ifLoans fall below $2.101 billion, or growth depends on another large pool purchase while payoffs exceed new fundings.
Why it matters: Classified loans rose to 1.63% of loans in Q3, even as special mention loans fell. A further rise would point to more credit stress.
Worry ifClassified loans exceed 1.63% of total loans, or non-accrual loans rise above $9.7 million in the next report.
Less concerning ifClassified loans fall below 1.63% and non-accrual loans fall below $9.7 million in the next report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,485 loss on $10,000 · 14.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.