Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.73+1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BMRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BMRC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-27
Other Events In the press release, Bancorp announced that on July 23, 2026, its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividen d of $ 0.25 p er share. The cash dividend is payable on August 13, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 6, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Why it matters: A drop in non-accrual loans shows credit quality is getting better.
Supportive ifNon-accrual loans reported below 0.41% of total loans.
Worry ifNon-accrual loans reported above 0.41% of total loans.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops below its median, it may impact Bank of Marin's performance. This could signal broader economic issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above median levels, supporting Bank of Marin's growth.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is below median levels. This shows possible challenges ahead.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows they care about giving value to shareholders.
Watch forThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share for the next quarter.
Also watch forThe Board cuts the dividend below $0.25 per share. This indicates possible financial strain.
Why it matters: Stable or rising deposits show that customers trust the bank. This means good deposit strategies.
Supportive ifTotal deposits rise from $3.370 billion. This shows customer loyalty and growth.
Worry ifTotal deposits drop from $3.370 billion. This may mean customer loss or market issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $236 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,485 loss on $10,000 · 14.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong loan origination growth shows healthy demand. It also shows effective lending strategies.
Supportive ifLoan originations grow more than 25% year over year, reflecting strong market demand.
Worry ifLoan originations grow less than 10% year over year. This suggests weakening demand or competition.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into the company's financial health and growth.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a significant increase in revenue and net income.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows a decline in revenue or net income.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects overall performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median of 15% over the past three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is above the median. This shows continued strength in the sector.
Why it matters: A drop in non-accrual loans shows better credit quality. It also shows good risk management.
Supportive ifNon-accrual loans fall below $8.0 million. This shows success in improving credit quality.
Worry ifNon-accrual loans rise above $9.0 million. This suggests worsening credit conditions.
Why it matters: Growing margins show good balance sheet management. This helps increase earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin is over 3.38%. This shows better loan yields.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin is below 3.24%. This points to loan pricing issues.
Why it matters: Good operating income shows strong management. A drop may mean issues ahead.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is over $11 million.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $6 million for Q2.
Why it matters: A rise in net interest margin shows good balance sheet management. It also shows profit growth.
Supportive ifNet interest margin goes above 3.40%. This means strong loan yields and good deposit cost management.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 3.30%. This suggests problems with loan pricing or deposit costs.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows high demand for loans. This can lead to more profits.
Supportive ifLoan origination growth exceeds 24% YoY in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoan origination growth falls below 20% YoY in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows strong performance. This helps keep positive feelings.
Supportive ifQ3 net income is over $9.2 million. This shows profits are improving.
Worry ifQ3 net income is below $8.5 million. This raises worries about profits.
Why it matters: Fewer special mention loans show better credit quality. This means better risk management.
Supportive ifSpecial mention loans are below $100 million. This shows credit quality is improving.
Worry ifSpecial mention loans are above $119 million. This suggests possible credit risks.