Reading BNL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BNL free→Reading BNL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BNL free→NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady, with low risk compared to peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If BNL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $21 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $20–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.18 (+1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.8% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$67.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$149.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $834.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose, with the valuation label moving from "fair" to "full." The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk remained low, while recent financial performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing and future plans.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows strong performance and a good outlook.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows weak results and a bad outlook.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BNL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Additionally, on April 29, 2026, the Company made available on its website an updated presentation containing quarterly supplemental information pertaining to its operations and financial re…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$20.00 – $22.00 (median $22.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BNL Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | low |
LINE Lineage Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | moderate |
EGP EastGroup Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
CUBE CubeSmart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
BNL aims to maintain its AFFO guidance of $1.53 to $1.57 per share for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. AFFO guidance for 2026 remains at $1.53 to $1.57 per share. AFFO per share was $0.38 in 2026-Q1, consistent with the guidance range. The trajectory is on track with management's stated guidance.
“BNL expects to report AFFO of $1.53 to $1.57 per diluted share, which remains unchanged.”
“BNL expects to report AFFO of $1.53 to $1.57 per diluted share, which remains unchanged from previously announced guidance.”
“For 2026, BNL expects to report AFFO of $1.53 to $1.57 per diluted share, or approximately 4.0% growth at the midpoint.”
BNL is focused on expanding its build-to-suit development pipeline to drive growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. BNL added $30 million to its committed pipeline in 2026-Q1 and invested $99.4 million in build-to-suit developments. The pipeline expansion is progressing with new projects and investments.
“We remain focused on adding to our growing pipeline of build-to-suits.”
BNL aims to increase net income through strategic investments and operational efficiency.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $33.1 million in 2025-Q4 to $46.4 million in 2026-Q1. The increase in net income indicates progress towards this priority, with a positive trajectory.
“Generated net income of $46.4 million, or $0.24 per diluted share.”
“Generated net income of $33.1 million, or $0.17 per diluted share.”
Why it matters: Keeping AFFO guidance steady is important for investor trust in growth.
Confirms:Management confirms AFFO guidance of $1.53 to $1.57 per share during Q2 earnings.
Disproves:Management cuts AFFO guidance to below $1.53 per share in Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Higher net income means better financial health. It also shows effective operations.
Confirms:Net income reported for Q2 is higher than the $46.4 million reported in Q1.
Disproves:Net income reported for Q2 is lower than the $46.4 million reported in Q1.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth returns to above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
“Added two new build-to-suit developments for $62.1 million.”
“We continue to expand our build-to-suit development pipeline.”