Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (BNL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.81-0.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BNL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BNL — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-10
Other Events. On August 6, 2026, Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (the “Company”) and Broadstone Net Lease, LLC entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named in Schedule 1 thereto (the “Underwriters”), Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, in their capacities as Forward Sellers (the “Forward Sellers”) and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and JPMorgan…
Why it matters: Confirming the AFFO guidance of $1.53 to $1.57 per share shows strong performance. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says AFFO guidance is the same for the upcoming earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers the AFFO guidance to below $1.53 per share.
Why it matters: Steady rental revenue growth shows the portfolio is doing well and tenants are healthy.
Supportive ifSame store rental revenue growth exceeds 2.2% year over year.
Worry ifSame store rental revenue growth falls below 2.2% year over year.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows BNL's ability to earn money. This helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income increases year over year, exceeding $40.3 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income declines or fails to exceed $40.3 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: News on the build-to-suit pipeline shows growth and how well the strategy works.
Supportive ifNew build-to-suit projects or big progress on current ones will be announced.
Worry ifNo new updates or delays in the current build-to-suit projects.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $156 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,042 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This project could improve BNL's development plans. It may also increase revenue.
Supportive ifThe Tesla facility starts construction on time and meets the projected cash yield.
Worry ifThe project may have delays. It could also have lower cash returns than expected.
Why it matters: Growth in the build-to-suit pipeline is key for future revenue and stability.
Supportive ifManagement says the pipeline will grow by more than $40 million.
Worry ifNo new announcements or a decrease in the committed pipeline.
Why it matters: This project will become BNL's largest tenant and boost future earnings. It shows the strength of BNL's development strategy.
Supportive ifThe project completes on time and generates a year-one cash yield of at least 8.5%.
Worry ifThe project faces delays or generates a cash yield below 8.5%.
Why it matters: This project is key for BNL's growth and shows demand for their developments.
Supportive ifThe Tesla project in Austin will stabilize by Q4 2027.
Worry ifThe project is late. It is past the expected stabilization date.
Why it matters: More projects in the pipeline show growth and demand for BNL's services.
Supportive ifBNL adds over $30 million in new build-to-suit developments in a quarter.
Worry ifNo new build-to-suit projects are announced for two quarters.
Why it matters: This project adds to BNL's pipeline and could enhance future cash flows.
Supportive ifThe project progresses on schedule with rent commencement in Q4 2027.
Worry ifAny delays or issues arise that push back the project timeline.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into financial performance and management's outlook. It is a key event for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows better results than expected and good guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows weaker results and bad guidance.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows good finances and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend declared at or above $0.2925 per share.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend is below $0.2925 per share.
Why it matters: This project with a big tenant could boost earnings. It may also prove the build-to-suit plan.
Supportive ifThe project is completed and rent commencement occurs by March 2027 as planned.
Worry ifThe project faces delays or cost overruns that push back the completion date or reduce expected yields.
Why it matters: An increase in AFFO guidance shows confidence in earnings growth. It also shows strong portfolio performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises the midpoint of AFFO guidance above $1.56 per share.
Worry ifManagement lowers or keeps AFFO guidance below $1.56 per share.