Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BOK FINANCIAL CORP (BOKF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$130.03-1.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.72 → 10.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BOKF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend growth | A supporting condition in BOK FINANCIAL CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.63 in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.57 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.63 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.63 in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.63 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional bank with a steady-growth profile, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact: recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is fragile and management execution is mixed on costs.
Valuation is broadly aligned with peers, with only a slight premium, and the expectations gap is small. The evidence labels current pricing as justified and fragility as low, so it does not point to a large mismatch between market expectations and the business setup.
Near term, reported loans have grown from the first to the third quarter of 2026, and BOKF reported earnings beats in each of the last three listed quarters. Expense control is less clear: third-quarter operating expense was close to the prior quarter, despite management's stated focus on costs. The near-term miss risk is described as low, though the history of a deep miss and recent peer misses warrant attention.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued broad-based loan growth, credit discipline, and better control of core expenses. A guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, the business setup remains intact, with loan growth and recent results offset by fragile earnings quality and mixed cost progress. The main checks are guidance, rates, and whether expense control improves. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain and grow net income and EPS | Net income rose from $140.9 million to $155.8 million recently. | Improving | Net income or EPS falls below $140 million or EPS below $9.17 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve cash flow from operations | A primary condition in BOK FINANCIAL CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Operating cash flow >= $0 in next 4 quarters. | Broken | Operating cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $787.356M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow >= $0 in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026787,356,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or grow revenue | A supporting condition in BOK FINANCIAL CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= -3% for FY27. | Intact | Revenue declines more than 3% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.65 → $10.76 · observed estimates
$2.41B → $2.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.65 | $2,414,603,640 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.67 | $2,416,093,990 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.70 | $2,416,071,770 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.70 | $2,416,071,770 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.70 | $2,416,071,770 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.70 | $2,416,071,770 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.70 | $2,416,071,770 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.76 | $2,420,417,430 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.64 | $2,415,994,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.73 | $2,420,364,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.73 | $2,420,361,879 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.73 | $2,420,361,879 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.73 | $2,422,215,691 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.73 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.73 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.73 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.73 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.73 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.73 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.73 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.75 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.75 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.75 | $2,422,215,691 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.77 | $2,422,430,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.77 | $2,422,430,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.77 | $2,422,410,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.77 | $2,422,410,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.77 | $2,422,410,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.77 | $2,422,410,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.77 | $2,422,410,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.77 | $2,422,410,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.74 | $2,421,390,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.72 | $2,419,610,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.72 | $2,419,610,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.72 | $2,419,610,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.72 | $2,419,610,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.72 | $2,419,610,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.72 | $2,419,610,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.72 | $2,419,610,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.72 | $2,419,630,397 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.72 | $2,416,176,967 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.75 | $2,404,372,197 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.75 | $2,404,015,984 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.76 | $2,399,015,984 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.76 | $2,399,015,984 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.76 | $2,399,015,984 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.76 | $2,399,015,984 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.76 | $2,399,015,984 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.77 | $2,395,485,984 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.77 | $2,395,485,984 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.77 | $2,395,485,984 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.77 | $2,395,485,984 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.76 | $2,394,255,984 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.76 | $2,394,255,984 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.76 | $2,395,221,064 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.76 | $2,395,221,064 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.