BOK FINANCIAL CORP (BOKF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$136.70-0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BOKF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BOKF — dividend update
Dated 2026-02-03
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors of BOK Financial Corporation declared a dividend on the company's common stock of 63 cents per share. The dividend will be payable on or about March 5, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 19, 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for running the business well and staying financially healthy.
Supportive ifCash from operations is back to positive, over $100 million.
Worry ifCash from operations is still negative or goes down more.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show wider economic problems. These could affect BOK Financial.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below the median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still above the median. This shows continued strength.
Why it matters: A big rise in operating costs could lower profit margins. This matters since costs have changed a lot recently.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase more than $7M in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses increase less than or equal to $7M in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable or growing fees and commissions show BOKF's revenue is strong and diverse.
Watch forFees and commissions revenue grows each quarter. This shows good performance in fee businesses.
Also watch forFees and commissions revenue falls again. This suggests ongoing issues in trading and investment banking.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $209 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,019 loss on $10,000 · 10.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong financial health and care for shareholders. This matters because dividend growth shows what management values.
Supportive ifDividend per share is announced to increase in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share remains unchanged or decreases in Q3.
Why it matters: More dividends show BOK Financial wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifBOK Financial announces an increase in the dividend per share in Q3.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend per share in Q3.
Why it matters: A stable or better net interest margin helps make more money. It shows good asset management.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is above 2.90%. This shows good management of interest rates.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 2.90%. This suggests possible pressure on making money.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may show less demand or more competition. This can lower revenue.
Worry ifLoan growth in Q3 is less than 10% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifLoan growth remains at or above 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Stable or lower expenses help profits and cash flow. This matches management's goals.
Supportive ifOperating expenses go down or stay the same since Q2. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifOperating expenses are going up a lot. This may mean higher costs or inefficiencies.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth supports management's goal of consistent earnings growth. It shows demand for loans is healthy.
Supportive ifLoan growth is over 3%. This shows strong demand and good lending strategies.
Worry ifLoan growth is under 3%. This means demand is weak or there are lending issues.
Why it matters: A fall in net income may mean problems with making money. This could lower investor confidence.
Worry ifNet income reported below $176 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income remains at or above $176 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in net interest margin could signal pressure on profitability. This is important for future earnings growth.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin drops below 2.90%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays at or above 2.90%.
Why it matters: A big drop in fees may show problems in core businesses. This affects earnings stability.
Worry ifFees and commissions revenue drops more than 3.7% in Q3.
Less concerning ifFees and commissions revenue increases or stays stable.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good capital management and care for shareholders. This helps investor trust.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.63 in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share is reduced from $0.63.