BellRing Brands (BRBR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.39-0.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BRBR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BRBR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, BellRing Brands, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for its third fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. In addition, on August 4, 2026, the Company published to the "Investor Relations" section of its website, www.bellringbrands.com, a supplemental presentation related to results for its third fiscal qua…
Why it matters: Higher charges show ongoing issues. These will hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 inventory charges were more than $10 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 inventory charges were less than $10 million.
Why it matters: Increased share repurchases could indicate management's confidence in the stock's value. It may also support earnings per share.
Supportive ifManagement says they will increase share buybacks past the current $516.9 million limit.
Worry ifShare buyback activity goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: More savings would show that management's cost-cutting plans are working and profits may improve.
Supportive ifAnnual savings from workforce changes are over $10 million.
Worry ifSavings below $10 million show that cost management is not working.
Why it matters: Updates on the CEO search may show changes in strategy or management.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO or a shortlist of candidates.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the CEO search process.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$268 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $625 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,998 loss on $10,000 · 80.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More spending on promotions can change margins. Watching this will show how BellRing reacts to market changes.
Watch forPromotional spending goes up but keeps or raises gross margins.
Also watch forPromotional spending goes up and gross margins drop more.
Why it matters: Lower growth shows ongoing problems in making more money. This is despite brand investment.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth prints below 4% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 4% year-over-year.
Why it matters: More share buybacks may show management's trust in the stock's value.
Supportive ifShare buybacks over $30 million were announced for Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth shows that brand investments are working and market plans are better.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth over 4% year-over-year shows good growth plans are in place.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth below 2% shows ongoing problems with market plans.
Why it matters: A lower Adjusted EBITDA shows profit problems. These are due to inflation and inventory issues.
Worry ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $275 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA was more than $295 million.
Why it matters: Negative growth shows weak demand for a key product. This affects overall sales.
Worry ifPremier Protein RTD sales grew less than last year.
Less concerning ifPremier Protein RTD sales grew more than last year.
Why it matters: Sales growth below 2% shows ongoing problems in increasing revenue.
Worry ifQ4 net sales growth was below 2% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ4 net sales growth was above 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Higher charges will hurt profit margins. They show ongoing operational problems.
Worry ifInventory charges are over $28 million for FY 2026.
Less concerning ifInventory charges stay at or below $28 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: A lower EBITDA shows ongoing problems with making money. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifIn fiscal year 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is below $275 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $275 million.