Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Brilliant Earth Group Inc (BRLT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.47-3.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.10 → 0.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BRLT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability near 0 | Management targets adjusted EBITDA profitability near 0. | Improving | Operating income remains negative beyond FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative recovery story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: management is making progress on growth and profitability, but recent financial performance remains weak and overall risk is high.
The evidence describes BRLT as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 46% premium versus peers and low confidence in the valuation model. The expectations gap is nearly neutral, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between current expectations and the underlying case.
Near term, sales and adjusted EBITDA have improved, and management raised full-year guidance after second-quarter results exceeded its profitability guidance. Showroom expansion is mixed, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback; the near-term miss risk is rated quiet, though the company is smaller and has had deep recent misses.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether positive sales growth and adjusted EBITDA profitability continue. Sector bellwethers TPR, SIG, and MOV also matter: continued strong results could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, BRLT remains a high-risk recovery thesis with measurable execution progress but weak recent performance and limited valuation-model confidence. The case hinges on sustaining growth and profitability without a guidance cut. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash flow improvement is a focus after operating cash fell from $7.2M to -$18.8M. |
| Improving |
| Cash from operations remains negative in FY26 |
Cash from operations: $17.433M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash from operations. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202617,433,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive net sales growth in mid-single-digit percentage | Brilliant Earth aims for mid-single-digit sales growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.67% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20265.668466 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net sales grew from $99.5M in 2026-Q1 to $115.1M in 2026-Q2, a 6% year-over-year increase. Management reiterated positive mid-single-digit full year net sales growth guidance. The trajectory is delivering with consistent growth and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.07 → $0.10 · observed estimates
$0.48B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.07 | $482,858,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.07 | $486,120,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.07 | $486,120,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.07 | $486,120,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.07 | $482,858,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.10 | $486,320,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.10 | $486,320,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.07 | $482,858,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.07 | $482,858,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.07 | $482,858,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.07 | $482,858,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.07 | $482,858,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.07 | $482,858,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.09 | $484,958,440 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.10 | $486,329,100 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.10 | $483,386,375 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.10 | $483,386,375 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.10 | $483,386,375 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.10 | $483,386,375 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.10 | $483,386,375 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.