Brilliant Earth Group Inc (BRLT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.47-3.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BRLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers
BRLT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Why it matters: The Nov. 5 report is the next set date to check sales and profit against management's Q3 ranges.
Watch forThe Nov. 5 report shows sales above flat year over year and adjusted EBITDA above $5M.
Also watch forThe Nov. 5 report shows lower sales year over year or adjusted EBITDA below $3M.
Why it matters: Fine jewelry bookings grew 32% in Q2 and support growth beyond bridal. A sharp slowdown would weaken that sign of progress.
Watch forFine jewelry bookings grow more than 30% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forFine jewelry bookings growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA beat its guide, and management raised its full-year profit range. Q3 will test that progress.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA exceeds $5M.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA falls below $3M.
Why it matters: Management guided to roughly flat Q3 sales after 6% growth in Q2. The result will test whether growth continues.
Watch forQ3 net sales grow year over year, above the roughly flat guide.
Also watch forQ3 net sales fall year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $601 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,321 loss on $10,000 · 63.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 margin rose 360 basis points from Q1, but stayed below the year-earlier level. A fall would pressure profit gains.
Worry ifQuarterly gross margin is at least 57.9%.
Less concerning ifQuarterly gross margin falls below 54.3%, the Q1 level.