Brilliant Earth Group Inc (BRLT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.36+3.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BRLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BRLT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would show progress towards management's goal of net sales growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth turns positive compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Strong performance at the main store could boost overall sales and brand visibility.
Supportive ifSales from the Beverly Hills flagship store exceed expectations in the first few months.
Worry ifSales from the main store do not meet expectations. This shows weak market demand.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for ongoing operations. It shows the company's ability to manage expenses and generate cash.
Supportive ifCash from operations is now positive after being -$18.8 million.
Worry ifCash from operations is still negative or getting worse.
Why it matters: Getting adjusted EBITDA to be positive is key for financial health. It shows better cost control and more revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is now positive. It is getting closer to profit.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is still negative or worse than -$4.7 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $655 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,321 loss on $10,000 · 63.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if the company can recover from recent sales drops. Good guidance means a possible turnaround.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales growth guidance shows low single-digit % growth from last year.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth guidance remains negative or flat year-over-year.
Why it matters: More showrooms help growth and make the customer experience better.
Watch forAt least one new showroom opened in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNo new showrooms opened in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting earnings expectations can help build investor trust. This is important after the recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings meet or beat analyst expectations.
Worry ifQ2 earnings miss expectations again.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA profit is important for financial health. It shows better cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is positive. This shows that the company is making more money.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is still negative in Q2. This shows ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings report will show sales performance and profit trends. This is important for the future.
Watch forQ2 results show net sales growth and improved adjusted EBITDA.
Also watch forQ2 results show falling net sales and worse adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to understanding if the company can turn profitable. Positive growth would signal a recovery.
Supportive ifBrilliant Earth reports positive revenue growth for the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Net sales growth shows the company can grow even with market challenges. This supports management's plan for mid-single-digit growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported as negative year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA helps us see how profitable the company is. If it drops below $3 million, there may be cost issues.
Worry ifIn Q3, adjusted EBITDA was above $3 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, adjusted EBITDA was below $3 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in bookings shows demand for fine jewelry. This shows the company's diversification strategy is working.
Supportive ifFine jewelry bookings growth reported above 30% year over year.
Worry ifFine jewelry bookings growth reported below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Expanding showrooms is crucial for retail strategy. New showrooms can drive sales and improve brand visibility.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new showrooms opened beyond the current 43.
Worry ifNo new showroom openings announced in the next quarter.